I may be confused about the “resolution” of your predictions. Suppose you were trying to predict how intelligent person x will seduce intelligent person y. If you said, “X will appeal to Y’s vanity and then demonstrate social status.” I feel that kind of prediction is pretty trivial. But predicting more exactly how X would do this seems vastly more difficult. How would you rate your abilities in this situation if 1 equals predictions at the resolution of the given example and 10 equals “I could draw you a flow chart which will more-or-less describe the whole of their interaction.”
I may be confused about the “resolution” of your predictions. Suppose you were trying to predict how intelligent person x will seduce intelligent person y. If you said, “X will appeal to Y’s vanity and then demonstrate social status.” I feel that kind of prediction is pretty trivial. But predicting more exactly how X would do this seems vastly more difficult. How would you rate your abilities in this situation if 1 equals predictions at the resolution of the given example and 10 equals “I could draw you a flow chart which will more-or-less describe the whole of their interaction.”