So for the purposes of my thought experiment, imagine that they concluded that there was a small but non-zero chance, at the level where it’s still meaningful to consider the moral weight of losing millions of lives in a battle over Japan’s home islands, or losing a post-war arms race to the Soviets. Presumably the question would be answered by the Soviets eventually anyway unless there was an international agreement. Also, for the sake argument we can consider any atmospheric nuclear test to settle the question once and for all. (We don’t have to ask this question again for each new bomb. Once any bomb explodes and we don’t die, the question is answered.)
So for the purposes of my thought experiment, imagine that they concluded that there was a small but non-zero chance, at the level where it’s still meaningful to consider the moral weight of losing millions of lives in a battle over Japan’s home islands, or losing a post-war arms race to the Soviets. Presumably the question would be answered by the Soviets eventually anyway unless there was an international agreement. Also, for the sake argument we can consider any atmospheric nuclear test to settle the question once and for all. (We don’t have to ask this question again for each new bomb. Once any bomb explodes and we don’t die, the question is answered.)