Interesting that Senthil brings up this book (http://www.amazon.com/Gut-Feelings-Intelligence-Gerd-Gigerenzer/dp/0670038636) because Eliezer’s recent posts have gotten me thinking whether there are any good rules for when to trust/doubt intuition. Much of the discussion about bias suggests we should question, and often reject, our instincts but at some point this hits diminishing returns and in others (e.g., the planning fallacy) could be a mistake. If Eliezer or any other contributors has thoughts about good rules of thumb for when it’s reasonable (safe? better?) to use rules of thumb, I would be eager to hear them.
Interesting that Senthil brings up this book (http://www.amazon.com/Gut-Feelings-Intelligence-Gerd-Gigerenzer/dp/0670038636) because Eliezer’s recent posts have gotten me thinking whether there are any good rules for when to trust/doubt intuition. Much of the discussion about bias suggests we should question, and often reject, our instincts but at some point this hits diminishing returns and in others (e.g., the planning fallacy) could be a mistake. If Eliezer or any other contributors has thoughts about good rules of thumb for when it’s reasonable (safe? better?) to use rules of thumb, I would be eager to hear them.