What’s bad about it? It looks like it gets reproducible results.
Thomas, I’m not sure why it’s bad. That’s the problem. I was unable to put my finger on it. I don’t remember what I answered. But even after the explanation was given, I felt that it wasn’t quite convincing that this would be a problem. It sure is getting reproducible results. But what may be causing the result may not be the bias.
I think you’ve answered why it’s bad when you said that it’s because of our culture, and particularly the way we use the word ‘probable’ to mean something than what the dictionary says it should. If that’s the case, it doesn’t throw any light on the conjunction fallacy per se. Even if the problem is framed differently, people should fall for the fallacy. But if you’re able to check the section in ‘Gut Feelings’, you’ll see that most people would answer it perfectly well. There would be no fallacy involved.
What’s bad about it? It looks like it gets reproducible results.
Thomas, I’m not sure why it’s bad. That’s the problem. I was unable to put my finger on it. I don’t remember what I answered. But even after the explanation was given, I felt that it wasn’t quite convincing that this would be a problem. It sure is getting reproducible results. But what may be causing the result may not be the bias.
I think you’ve answered why it’s bad when you said that it’s because of our culture, and particularly the way we use the word ‘probable’ to mean something than what the dictionary says it should. If that’s the case, it doesn’t throw any light on the conjunction fallacy per se. Even if the problem is framed differently, people should fall for the fallacy. But if you’re able to check the section in ‘Gut Feelings’, you’ll see that most people would answer it perfectly well. There would be no fallacy involved.
Thanks, Bob, for the Amazon link.