I’ve skimmed over A Technical Explanation of Technical Explanation (you can make links end do over stuff by selecting the text you want to edit (as if you want to copy it); if your browser is compatible, toolbar should appear). I think that’s the first time in my life when I’ve found out that I need to know more math to understand non-mathematical text. The text is not about Bayes’ Theorem, but it is about application of probability theory to reasoning, which is relevant to my question. As far as I understand, Yudkowski writes about the same algorithm that Vladimir_Nesov describes in his answer to my question. Some nice properties of the algorithm are proved, but not very rigorously. I don’t know how to fix it, which is not very surprising, since I know very little about statistics. In fact, I am now half-convinced to take a course or something like that. Thank you for that.
As for the other part of your answer, it actually makes me even more confused. You are saying “using Bayes in life is more about understanding just how much priors matter than about actually crunching the numbers”. To me it sounds similar to “using steel in life is more about understanding just how much whole can be greater than the sum of its parts than about actually making things from some metal”. I mean, there is nothing inherently wrong with using a concept as a metaphor and/or inspiration. But it can sometimes cause miscommunication. And I am under impression that some people here (not only me) talk about Bayes’ Theorem in a very literal sense.
I’ve skimmed over A Technical Explanation of Technical Explanation (you can make links end do over stuff by selecting the text you want to edit (as if you want to copy it); if your browser is compatible, toolbar should appear). I think that’s the first time in my life when I’ve found out that I need to know more math to understand non-mathematical text. The text is not about Bayes’ Theorem, but it is about application of probability theory to reasoning, which is relevant to my question. As far as I understand, Yudkowski writes about the same algorithm that Vladimir_Nesov describes in his answer to my question. Some nice properties of the algorithm are proved, but not very rigorously. I don’t know how to fix it, which is not very surprising, since I know very little about statistics. In fact, I am now half-convinced to take a course or something like that. Thank you for that.
As for the other part of your answer, it actually makes me even more confused. You are saying “using Bayes in life is more about understanding just how much priors matter than about actually crunching the numbers”. To me it sounds similar to “using steel in life is more about understanding just how much whole can be greater than the sum of its parts than about actually making things from some metal”. I mean, there is nothing inherently wrong with using a concept as a metaphor and/or inspiration. But it can sometimes cause miscommunication. And I am under impression that some people here (not only me) talk about Bayes’ Theorem in a very literal sense.