If you use Scott Alexander’s system, create 5+ predictions each for fixed confidence levels (50%, 60%, 70%, 80%, 90%, 95%, etc.)
Why? It seems to me more productive to try to find confidence levels for predictions than to find predictions for confidence levels.
Additionally the book Superforecasting suggets that Superforcasters are people who make more granular predictions then 50%, 60%, 70%, 80%, 90%, 95%, etc.
Why? It seems to me more productive to try to find confidence levels for predictions than to find predictions for confidence levels.
Additionally the book Superforecasting suggets that Superforcasters are people who make more granular predictions then 50%, 60%, 70%, 80%, 90%, 95%, etc.