Use the oracle to compress data according to the MDL Principle. Specifically, give the oracle a string and ask it to produce a program that, when run, outputs the original string. The reward to the oracle is large and negative if the program does not reproduce the string when run, or inversely proportional to the length of the program if it does. The oracle receives a reward after the program runs or fails to terminate in a sufficient amount of time.
Submission: Low Bandwidth Oracle:
Have the oracle predict the price of a commodity / security / sports bet at some point in the future from a list of plausible prices. Ideally, the oracle would spit out a probability distribution which can be scored using a proper scoring rule, but just predicting the nearest most likely price should also work. Either way, the length of the episode is the time until the prediction can be verified. From there, it shouldn’t be too difficult to use those predictions to make money.
More generally, I suppose we can use the counterfactual oracle to solve any optimisation or decision problem that can be evaluated with a computer, such as protein folding, SAT problems, or formally checked maths proofs.
Submission: Counterfactual Oracle:
Use the oracle to compress data according to the MDL Principle. Specifically, give the oracle a string and ask it to produce a program that, when run, outputs the original string. The reward to the oracle is large and negative if the program does not reproduce the string when run, or inversely proportional to the length of the program if it does. The oracle receives a reward after the program runs or fails to terminate in a sufficient amount of time.
Submission: Low Bandwidth Oracle:
Have the oracle predict the price of a commodity / security / sports bet at some point in the future from a list of plausible prices. Ideally, the oracle would spit out a probability distribution which can be scored using a proper scoring rule, but just predicting the nearest most likely price should also work. Either way, the length of the episode is the time until the prediction can be verified. From there, it shouldn’t be too difficult to use those predictions to make money.
More generally, I suppose we can use the counterfactual oracle to solve any optimisation or decision problem that can be evaluated with a computer, such as protein folding, SAT problems, or formally checked maths proofs.