Submission. Counterfactual oracle. Give the oracle the set of questions on Metaculus that have a resolve date before some future date T, and receive output in the form of ordered pairs of question IDs and predictions. The score of the Oracle in the case where we don’t see its answers is the number of Metaculus points that it would have earned by T if it had made a prediction on those questions at the time when we asked it.
Submission. Counterfactual oracle. Give the oracle the set of questions on Metaculus that have a resolve date before some future date T, and receive output in the form of ordered pairs of question IDs and predictions. The score of the Oracle in the case where we don’t see its answers is the number of Metaculus points that it would have earned by T if it had made a prediction on those questions at the time when we asked it.