What is the most likely solution to the Fermi Paradox?
Answer can be picked from a small number of options (Rare Earth, Aestivation, Great Filter, Planetarium etc.). There are a number of observation that we can make based on the question alone. However, in the end the LBO can only do one of 2 things: lie or be honest. If it lies, the prediction will have a harder and harder time matching the reality that we observe as time goes on. Alternatively we confirm the prediction and learn some interesting things about the universe we live in.
Submission: Low-bandwidth Oracle
What was the first self-replicating molecule on Earth?
Short answer(can also be limited to a list), easy to verify in the lab, which means we can use it to assess the predictive power of the machine, while at the same time provides very useful information.
Similar questions that are hard to answer but can be answered in a few bits, which let us test the power of the LBO and provide massive returns at the same time:
What is the easiest to develop type of fusion power that ensure the best economic return in the short/medium term?
See the edit (especially for your first suggestion): “decide on the length of each episode, and how the outcome is calculated. The Oracle is run once an episode only (and other Oracles can’t generally be used on the same problem; if you want to run multiple Oracles, you have to justify why this would work), and has to get objective/loss/reward by the end of that episode, which therefore has to be estimated in some way at that point.”
Submission: Low-bandwidth Oracle
What is the most likely solution to the Fermi Paradox?
Answer can be picked from a small number of options (Rare Earth, Aestivation, Great Filter, Planetarium etc.). There are a number of observation that we can make based on the question alone. However, in the end the LBO can only do one of 2 things: lie or be honest. If it lies, the prediction will have a harder and harder time matching the reality that we observe as time goes on. Alternatively we confirm the prediction and learn some interesting things about the universe we live in.
Submission: Low-bandwidth Oracle
What was the first self-replicating molecule on Earth?
Short answer(can also be limited to a list), easy to verify in the lab, which means we can use it to assess the predictive power of the machine, while at the same time provides very useful information.
Similar questions that are hard to answer but can be answered in a few bits, which let us test the power of the LBO and provide massive returns at the same time:
What is the easiest to develop type of fusion power that ensure the best economic return in the short/medium term?
What is the cheapest way of access to space?
What forms of FTL are possible?
What are the ligands of orphan receptors?
...
See the edit (especially for your first suggestion): “decide on the length of each episode, and how the outcome is calculated. The Oracle is run once an episode only (and other Oracles can’t generally be used on the same problem; if you want to run multiple Oracles, you have to justify why this would work), and has to get objective/loss/reward by the end of that episode, which therefore has to be estimated in some way at that point.”