I think there’s a difference between ignoring a stated assumption, and failing to infer an unstated assumption. In the example I generated from your OP as an illustration of Assumption Amnesia, the problem was ignoring a stated assumption (“Whenever we have no independent means of checking the veracity of the data.”).
By contrast, in the hypothetical cases you present, the problem is failing to infer an unstated assumption (“it’s risky to invest in a single stock, no matter how good the company looks, I always diversify” and “if everything goes smoothly, which it never does”).
My central case for Assumption Amnesia is the former—ignoring a stated assumption. I think the latter is at least as important, but is also more forgivable. It depends on sheer expertise/sophisticated application of heuristics. Taken literally, the hypothetical Musk statement would justify buying the FSD option. It seems related to the problem of knowing when to take a religious, political, poetic, or joking statment literally, figuratively, or as an exaggeration; and when it’s meant specifically and seriously.
In any case, all these seem to be component challenges of the overall problem of interpreting statements in context. It does seem quite useful to break that skill up into factors that can be individually examined and practiced.
I think there’s a difference between ignoring a stated assumption, and failing to infer an unstated assumption. In the example I generated from your OP as an illustration of Assumption Amnesia, the problem was ignoring a stated assumption (“Whenever we have no independent means of checking the veracity of the data.”).
By contrast, in the hypothetical cases you present, the problem is failing to infer an unstated assumption (“it’s risky to invest in a single stock, no matter how good the company looks, I always diversify” and “if everything goes smoothly, which it never does”).
My central case for Assumption Amnesia is the former—ignoring a stated assumption. I think the latter is at least as important, but is also more forgivable. It depends on sheer expertise/sophisticated application of heuristics. Taken literally, the hypothetical Musk statement would justify buying the FSD option. It seems related to the problem of knowing when to take a religious, political, poetic, or joking statment literally, figuratively, or as an exaggeration; and when it’s meant specifically and seriously.
In any case, all these seem to be component challenges of the overall problem of interpreting statements in context. It does seem quite useful to break that skill up into factors that can be individually examined and practiced.