Why new year’s predictions? Why not new day’s predictions, or new week’s predictions?
In general, it is easier to make a list of predictions and gauge uncertainty at one time. It takes a lot of effort, and so is generally done sparingly. The beginning of the calendar year makes a good Schelling point to do that work, especially given that there are lots of other “new year” rituals it folds into.
Couldn’t you do better? Should you carry notebooks with you everywhere all the time, prepared to write predictions? Should you use an interval timer to force you to make a prediction whenever it rings?
There is probably a market outside of Less Wrong (definitely within Less Wrong and the ratcom) for some sort of app or service that reminds people to make predictions, gauge uncertainty, and then update those predictions at time intervals. Think “Anki cards” but for predictions. The biggest hinderance is mental effort and the fact that the rewards are so nebulous (“oh wow, I’ve become good at gauging uncertainty thats [socially] useful for… what exactly?”)
https://predictionbook.com/ has a skeleton that could be extended with prompts for belief updates. It already has prompts for adjudication of your previous predictions.
In general, it is easier to make a list of predictions and gauge uncertainty at one time. It takes a lot of effort, and so is generally done sparingly. The beginning of the calendar year makes a good Schelling point to do that work, especially given that there are lots of other “new year” rituals it folds into.
There is probably a market outside of Less Wrong (definitely within Less Wrong and the ratcom) for some sort of app or service that reminds people to make predictions, gauge uncertainty, and then update those predictions at time intervals. Think “Anki cards” but for predictions. The biggest hinderance is mental effort and the fact that the rewards are so nebulous (“oh wow, I’ve become good at gauging uncertainty thats [socially] useful for… what exactly?”)
https://predictionbook.com/ has a skeleton that could be extended with prompts for belief updates. It already has prompts for adjudication of your previous predictions.