This is deeply unconvincing. We didn’t have a great power war in the 60s or the 70s because that would have meant nuclear war. High-level US government officials in internal documents describe Russia as an existential threat. Russian government documents, as I understand it, reflect terror of American willingness to use nukes. We haven’t had a war between the US and China yet, but estimates of that holding true over the next five years are less confident than I’d like.
“Most wars have ultimately been fought over land because land determines food production and food production was a matter of life and death.”
It seems like you’re explaining the actions of kings with the preferences of peasants (and I am very unconvinced that a victorious war was better for the average peasant than peace), and I don’t see that as particularly persuasive.
It seems like you’re explaining the actions of kings with the preferences of peasants (and I am very unconvinced that a victorious war was better for the average peasant than peace), and I don’t see that as particularly persuasive.
Starving peasants revolt. Kings don’t like revolts. Using starving peasants as soldiers to conquer new land is a way to divert peasant revolt by promising them the new land. And the king kills 2 birds with 1 stone, since starving peasants die killing neighbouring rivals. I’m not certain that’s how it happens, but it’s plausible and it solves all your qualms.
Is this true? My understanding is that it’s typically the well educated middle classes that start revolutions. Starving peasants are not well positioned to organized much less win, revolutions.
I’m not an expert, but assuming that by revolution you mean something close to “an attempt to change government through non-legal means”, then I agree with your points, but I’ll also note that revolt and revolution only partially overlap. Revolts are typically less organised and with more modest goals than a government overthrow. They are also mostly initiated and fueled by the resentment and desperation of a lower class.
My tentative model is “Starving peasants revolt. Kings don’t like revolts.” Not “Starving peasants lead successful revolutions.”
To take a modern day example that I have experience with, the yellow vest movement in France was a revolt from the working poor outside big cities because the rise in the gas price made their life impossible in a context where they needed cars to work and purchase essential goods. They were leaderless and actually opposed attempts at vertical organisation. In their early stages, they would have been content with gas prices returning to their previous levels. Nonetheless, they were a thorn in the side of the government, and were even a threat to it at some point.
Three years later, I mostly stand by this: war with China has not happened, but estimates of likelihoods have risen, and it not driven by food concerns in the slightest.
This is deeply unconvincing. We didn’t have a great power war in the 60s or the 70s because that would have meant nuclear war. High-level US government officials in internal documents describe Russia as an existential threat. Russian government documents, as I understand it, reflect terror of American willingness to use nukes. We haven’t had a war between the US and China yet, but estimates of that holding true over the next five years are less confident than I’d like.
“Most wars have ultimately been fought over land because land determines food production and food production was a matter of life and death.”
It seems like you’re explaining the actions of kings with the preferences of peasants (and I am very unconvinced that a victorious war was better for the average peasant than peace), and I don’t see that as particularly persuasive.
Starving peasants revolt. Kings don’t like revolts. Using starving peasants as soldiers to conquer new land is a way to divert peasant revolt by promising them the new land. And the king kills 2 birds with 1 stone, since starving peasants die killing neighbouring rivals. I’m not certain that’s how it happens, but it’s plausible and it solves all your qualms.
Is this true? My understanding is that it’s typically the well educated middle classes that start revolutions. Starving peasants are not well positioned to organized much less win, revolutions.
I’m not an expert, but assuming that by revolution you mean something close to “an attempt to change government through non-legal means”, then I agree with your points, but I’ll also note that revolt and revolution only partially overlap. Revolts are typically less organised and with more modest goals than a government overthrow. They are also mostly initiated and fueled by the resentment and desperation of a lower class.
My tentative model is “Starving peasants revolt. Kings don’t like revolts.” Not “Starving peasants lead successful revolutions.”
To take a modern day example that I have experience with, the yellow vest movement in France was a revolt from the working poor outside big cities because the rise in the gas price made their life impossible in a context where they needed cars to work and purchase essential goods. They were leaderless and actually opposed attempts at vertical organisation. In their early stages, they would have been content with gas prices returning to their previous levels. Nonetheless, they were a thorn in the side of the government, and were even a threat to it at some point.
Three years later, I mostly stand by this: war with China has not happened, but estimates of likelihoods have risen, and it not driven by food concerns in the slightest.