An earlier draft of this actually mentioned vaccination status, and I only removed it for sentence flow reasons. You’re right that vaccination status (or prior history of COVID) is an important part of your prior estimate, along with prevalence in your area, and your activities/level of exposure. The microCOVID calculator I linked factors in all three of these. I’ve also edited the relevant sentence in the “Using Bayes factors” section to mention vaccination status.
I was wondering about this too, but maybe the author has a good reason for not breaking it down by immunity status?
An earlier draft of this actually mentioned vaccination status, and I only removed it for sentence flow reasons. You’re right that vaccination status (or prior history of COVID) is an important part of your prior estimate, along with prevalence in your area, and your activities/level of exposure. The microCOVID calculator I linked factors in all three of these. I’ve also edited the relevant sentence in the “Using Bayes factors” section to mention vaccination status.