I had expected the game to remain intractable for decades.
Why? To me it seems that there was steady progress on the Go-programs getting better. In January 2012 Crazy Stone was already 5 dan. From the 2012 vantage point I find any prediction that this will happen post 2030 to be very strange.
From memory I think simply linear interpolation would have given you a date maybe five years past AlphaGo’s actual success.
(I did play a lot of go in the past and likely relate to it differently as a result, 5 dan is already more than any human I played with)
Why? To me it seems that there was steady progress on the Go-programs getting better. In January 2012 Crazy Stone was already 5 dan. From the 2012 vantage point I find any prediction that this will happen post 2030 to be very strange.
From memory I think simply linear interpolation would have given you a date maybe five years past AlphaGo’s actual success.
(I did play a lot of go in the past and likely relate to it differently as a result, 5 dan is already more than any human I played with)