Given the fact that Czarist Russia had poor organization, wars and revolutions create chaos and destroy information, contemporary people have difficulty agreeing to within a factor of two as to how many people the Gulags or Chinese Cultural Revolution killed, and Russian population numbers in 1960 may have been lies (see http://www.heinleinsociety.org/readersgroup/AIM_06-20-2002.html ) I am very skeptical of the claim but much less skeptical of its logical consistency.
I’m seriously curious about the life expectancy consistency (and even more about Cuba’s life expectancy legitimacy, but that’s less easily checked) but not willing to do a serious analysis myself, as it sounds time-consuming. Don’t want to set up an account on in-trade, but it you will do the analysis with even odds for $10 and propose a third party judge who I find credible to look over my counter-arguments and make a decision it would be worth my time to look over your data analysis and look for counter-arguments. My experience on Long Bets though makes me doubt that the third party judging etc can be done all that easily and in that satisfactory a manner, but it’s worth a try.
i definitely don’t accept your claim that the other claims are refutable, but that doesn’t deny me the opportunity to gain a some new factual knowledge cheaply or profitably.
Given the fact that Czarist Russia had poor organization, wars and revolutions create chaos and destroy information, contemporary people have difficulty agreeing to within a factor of two as to how many people the Gulags or Chinese Cultural Revolution killed, and Russian population numbers in 1960 may have been lies (see http://www.heinleinsociety.org/readersgroup/AIM_06-20-2002.html ) I am very skeptical of the claim but much less skeptical of its logical consistency.
I’m seriously curious about the life expectancy consistency (and even more about Cuba’s life expectancy legitimacy, but that’s less easily checked) but not willing to do a serious analysis myself, as it sounds time-consuming. Don’t want to set up an account on in-trade, but it you will do the analysis with even odds for $10 and propose a third party judge who I find credible to look over my counter-arguments and make a decision it would be worth my time to look over your data analysis and look for counter-arguments. My experience on Long Bets though makes me doubt that the third party judging etc can be done all that easily and in that satisfactory a manner, but it’s worth a try.
i definitely don’t accept your claim that the other claims are refutable, but that doesn’t deny me the opportunity to gain a some new factual knowledge cheaply or profitably.