Avoiding actions that noticeably increase the chance that civilization is destroyed
LessWrong avoided creating a big red button that represents destroying civilization. This is symbolic of Virtue A actions like “don’t create nuclear weapons” and “don’t create a superintelligence” and “don’t create the torment nexus”. Given that LessWrong has failed on this virtue in past Petrov Days, I am glad to see this. Manifold had a 70% conditional chance that if the button was created then it would be used.
Rating: 10⁄10.
Accurately reporting your epistemic state
The following sentences in the second poll appear to be false:
After some discussion, the LessWrong team has decided… (false, still not decided today)
Your selected response is currently in the minority (false for 58% of recipients)
If you click the below link and are the first to do so of any minority group, we will make your selected virtue be the focus of next year’s commemoration. (not known to be true at the time it was sent, still not decided)
This is symbolic of actions lacking Virtue B like data fraud, social engineering and lazy bullshit. I don’t think much of the excuses given.
Rating: 0⁄10
Other virtues
Quickly orienting to novel situations. This was not a novel situation, it happens every year on the same day. Not applicable.
Resisting social pressure. Judging from the comments, there was little social pressure to have a big red button. There was social pressure to do something and something was done. Overall, unclear, no rating.
A Review of Petrov Day 2023, according to the four virtues. First a check on the Manifold predictions for the day:
Will LessWrong Petrov Day 2023 be about blowing up home page(s)? - resolved NO, was 70%
Will Less Wrong’s big red button be used on Petrov Day 2023? - resolved NO, was 50%.
Avoiding actions that noticeably increase the chance that civilization is destroyed
LessWrong avoided creating a big red button that represents destroying civilization. This is symbolic of Virtue A actions like “don’t create nuclear weapons” and “don’t create a superintelligence” and “don’t create the torment nexus”. Given that LessWrong has failed on this virtue in past Petrov Days, I am glad to see this. Manifold had a 70% conditional chance that if the button was created then it would be used.
Rating: 10⁄10.
Accurately reporting your epistemic state
The following sentences in the second poll appear to be false:
After some discussion, the LessWrong team has decided… (false, still not decided today)
Your selected response is currently in the minority (false for 58% of recipients)
If you click the below link and are the first to do so of any minority group, we will make your selected virtue be the focus of next year’s commemoration. (not known to be true at the time it was sent, still not decided)
This is symbolic of actions lacking Virtue B like data fraud, social engineering and lazy bullshit. I don’t think much of the excuses given.
Rating: 0⁄10
Other virtues
Quickly orienting to novel situations. This was not a novel situation, it happens every year on the same day. Not applicable.
Resisting social pressure. Judging from the comments, there was little social pressure to have a big red button. There was social pressure to do something and something was done. Overall, unclear, no rating.
Predictions