Yes, “precision beyond order-of-magnitude” is probably a better way to say what I was trying to.
I would go further and say that establishing P(doom) > 1% is sufficient to make AI the most important x-risk, because (like you point out), I don’t think there are other x-risks that have over a 1% chance of causing extinction (or permanent collapse). I don’t have this argument written up, but my reasoning mostly comes from the pieces I linked in addition to John Halstead’s research on the risks from climate change.
You need to multiply by the amount of change you think you can have.
Agreed. I don’t know of any work that addresses this question directly by trying to estimate how much different projects can reduce P(doom) but would be very interested to read something like that. I also think P(doom) sort of contains this information but people seem to use different definitions.
Yes, “precision beyond order-of-magnitude” is probably a better way to say what I was trying to.
I would go further and say that establishing P(doom) > 1% is sufficient to make AI the most important x-risk, because (like you point out), I don’t think there are other x-risks that have over a 1% chance of causing extinction (or permanent collapse). I don’t have this argument written up, but my reasoning mostly comes from the pieces I linked in addition to John Halstead’s research on the risks from climate change.
Agreed. I don’t know of any work that addresses this question directly by trying to estimate how much different projects can reduce P(doom) but would be very interested to read something like that. I also think P(doom) sort of contains this information but people seem to use different definitions.