I don’t think that “lots of the informed people” being elsewhere should make much difference. The main metric for how seriously to consider data from prediction markets (in my mind) is open interest (or volume / liquidity if open interest isn’t available).
Yes—well, there are taxes on gambling profits, but on the betting companies, but not the individual gamblers.
I don’t think that “lots of the informed people” being elsewhere should make much difference. The main metric for how seriously to consider data from prediction markets (in my mind) is open interest (or volume / liquidity if open interest isn’t available).
Yes—well, there are taxes on gambling profits, but on the betting companies, but not the individual gamblers.