According to Betfair you need to bet in over 250 markets to trigger the premium charge, and “Any single win that constitutes more than 50% of your gross profits over the lifetime of your account will be excluded from the calculation”. I think the hypothetical person trying to bet $1m on the presidential race is safe.
Regarding crypto, isn’t Augur v2 theoretically supposed to launch soon?
I don’t know much about crypto, but I thought FTX was fairly liquid? I guess using it is a legal grey area for US citizens though. From looking at the orderbook it looks like you could get ~500k down over time without moving the price by more than 5c. (I guess it depends on your definition of acceptable slippage; to me 5c is fine)
You were the one making the claims about crypto. FTX isn’t accessible to US or UK based bettors for the Trump election. (So not a grey area, just not an area you can use at all).
(I also refused to believe that liquidity is real. Whenever I see orders like that in an order book I am usually fairly confident that there is something subtle going on which means they have a technological way to avoid being filled.
Looking into FTX, the subtlty is that you can’t submit orders 2% thru’ the order book, which means you can safely leave gigantic orders off-market to maintain queue spot or for other technical reasons).
I know people living in the US have been able ot bet on FTX despite their ToS banning US citizens; I haven’t done this so I don’t know the process. Maybe it’s straight up illegal rather than a legal grey area! (I think you might need to supply fake KYC docs which does sound kind of illegal now that I think about it?)
According to Betfair you need to bet in over 250 markets to trigger the premium charge, and “Any single win that constitutes more than 50% of your gross profits over the lifetime of your account will be excluded from the calculation”. I think the hypothetical person trying to bet $1m on the presidential race is safe.
Regarding crypto, isn’t Augur v2 theoretically supposed to launch soon?
Fair enough, for a one off it might work, although that wouldn’t be the case for someone who is regularly active in prediction markets.
Theoretically on the 28th, but that doesn’t answer my question about where you can currently get serious money down down in crypto?
I don’t know much about crypto, but I thought FTX was fairly liquid? I guess using it is a legal grey area for US citizens though. From looking at the orderbook it looks like you could get ~500k down over time without moving the price by more than 5c. (I guess it depends on your definition of acceptable slippage; to me 5c is fine)
You were the one making the claims about crypto. FTX isn’t accessible to US or UK based bettors for the Trump election. (So not a grey area, just not an area you can use at all).
(I also refused to believe that liquidity is real. Whenever I see orders like that in an order book I am usually fairly confident that there is something subtle going on which means they have a technological way to avoid being filled.
Looking into FTX, the subtlty is that you can’t submit orders 2% thru’ the order book, which means you can safely leave gigantic orders off-market to maintain queue spot or for other technical reasons).
I know people living in the US have been able ot bet on FTX despite their ToS banning US citizens; I haven’t done this so I don’t know the process. Maybe it’s straight up illegal rather than a legal grey area! (I think you might need to supply fake KYC docs which does sound kind of illegal now that I think about it?)