First, are any of the things you suggest in fact legal for US-based bettors?
Second, how difficult in terms of time/inconvenience/up-front capital costs without the potential for leverage are they compared to the ways in which you can bet on e.g. the price of Google stock?
If you’re telling someone in the US “you should be willing to bet your views on prediction markets, if you’re right it’s free money” when what you mean is “it’s free money provided you’re willing to dedicate hours to working your money through crypto exchanges, committing tax fraud along the way”, that feels somewhat different.
I would be willing to tell someone who thinks Google shares are underpriced “go buy some then,” because buying Google stock at low cost is legal, very easy, and even if you have limited up-front cash the real financial markets offer opportunities for leverage (options etc.)
I would not be willing to tell someone who thinks Trump Wins shares are underpriced “go buy some then” when that process is time-consuming, difficult, and likely illegal.
Yes, it’s completely legal for people in the US to bet on things; the only illegal part is being an intermediary.
I see where you’re coming from re “you should be willing to bet your views”; I just want to be clear that if you think PI prices are inefficient, it’s mostly not because of transaction fees/taxes/etc.
How about telling someone who thinks Trump Wins shares are underpriced “go search on twitter and poker forums for people betting on this, and message a few of them”? This is completely legal, doesn’t take that long, and is quite safe as long as you both agree to trustworthy escrow. There’s no guarantee you’ll find anyone willing to take your bet, but I think the chances you would are fairly high.
Two replies here, I think:
First, are any of the things you suggest in fact legal for US-based bettors?
Second, how difficult in terms of time/inconvenience/up-front capital costs without the potential for leverage are they compared to the ways in which you can bet on e.g. the price of Google stock?
If you’re telling someone in the US “you should be willing to bet your views on prediction markets, if you’re right it’s free money” when what you mean is “it’s free money provided you’re willing to dedicate hours to working your money through crypto exchanges, committing tax fraud along the way”, that feels somewhat different.
I would be willing to tell someone who thinks Google shares are underpriced “go buy some then,” because buying Google stock at low cost is legal, very easy, and even if you have limited up-front cash the real financial markets offer opportunities for leverage (options etc.)
I would not be willing to tell someone who thinks Trump Wins shares are underpriced “go buy some then” when that process is time-consuming, difficult, and likely illegal.
Yes, it’s completely legal for people in the US to bet on things; the only illegal part is being an intermediary.
I see where you’re coming from re “you should be willing to bet your views”; I just want to be clear that if you think PI prices are inefficient, it’s mostly not because of transaction fees/taxes/etc.
How about telling someone who thinks Trump Wins shares are underpriced “go search on twitter and poker forums for people betting on this, and message a few of them”? This is completely legal, doesn’t take that long, and is quite safe as long as you both agree to trustworthy escrow. There’s no guarantee you’ll find anyone willing to take your bet, but I think the chances you would are fairly high.