The more salient counter-argument, I think, is that if prediction markets are functioning as advertised then this shouldn’t matter.
If lots of Trump supporters are attracted by advertising to make expressive bets, this should draw smart money like blood draws sharks as informed investors snap up the free money...but this is contingent on smart investors actually being able to profit from this mispricing, which for the reasons in the post they may not be.
The more salient counter-argument, I think, is that if prediction markets are functioning as advertised then this shouldn’t matter.
If lots of Trump supporters are attracted by advertising to make expressive bets, this should draw smart money like blood draws sharks as informed investors snap up the free money...but this is contingent on smart investors actually being able to profit from this mispricing, which for the reasons in the post they may not be.