I’m decently calibrated on the credence game and have made plenty of prediction book predictions.
The idea of Bayesianism that it’s good to boil down your beliefs to probability numbers.
you did say (my emphasis)
If you think my argument is wrong provide your own numbers. P(Zeus exists | Myths exists) and P(Zeus exists | Myths don’t exist)
There really no point discussing Zeus further if you aren’t willing to put number on your own beliefs. Apart from that I linked to a discussion about Bayesianism and you might want to read that discussion if you want a deeper understanding of the claim.
I’m decently calibrated on the credence game and have made plenty of prediction book predictions.
You cannot use the credence game to validate your estimation of probabilities of one-off situations down at the 10^-18 level. You will never see Zeus or any similar entity.
The idea of Bayesianism that it’s good to boil down your beliefs to probability numbers.
I am familiar with the concept. The idea is also that it’s no good pulling numbers out of thin air. Bayesian reasoning is about (1) doing certain calculations with probabilities and evidence—by which I mean numerical calculations with numbers that are not made up—and (2) where numerical calculation is not possible, using the ideas as a heuristic background and toolbox. Assigning 10^-bignum to Zeus existing confuses the two.
Look! My office walls are white! I must increase my estimated probability of crows being bright pink from 10^-18 to 10^-15! No, I don’t think I shall.
Earlier you wrote:
The central reason to believe that Zeus doesn’t exist are weak priors.
The central reason to believe that Zeus doesn’t exist is the general arguments against the existence of gods and similar entities. We don’t see them acting in the world. We know what thunder and lightning are and have no reason to attribute them to Zeus. Our disbelief arose after we already knew about the myths, so the thought experiment is ill-posed. “The fact that there are myths about Zeus is evidence that Zeus exists” is a pretty slogan but does not actually make any sense. Sense nowadays, that is. Of course the ancient Greeks were brought up on such tales and I assume believed in their pantheon as much as the believers of any other religion do in theirs. But the thought experiment is being posed today, addressed to people today, and you claim to have updated—from what prior state? -- from 10^-18 to 10^-15.
The point to have the discussion about Zeus is Politics is the Mind-Killer. The insignificance of Zeus existence is a feature not a bug.
If I would make an argument that the average person’s estimate of the chance that a single unprotected act of sex with a stranger infects them with AIDS is off by two orders of magnitude, then that topic is going to mind kill. The same is true for other interesting claims.
I’m decently calibrated on the credence game and have made plenty of prediction book predictions. The idea of Bayesianism that it’s good to boil down your beliefs to probability numbers.
If you think my argument is wrong provide your own numbers. P(Zeus exists | Myths exists) and P(Zeus exists | Myths don’t exist)
There really no point discussing Zeus further if you aren’t willing to put number on your own beliefs. Apart from that I linked to a discussion about Bayesianism and you might want to read that discussion if you want a deeper understanding of the claim.
You cannot use the credence game to validate your estimation of probabilities of one-off situations down at the 10^-18 level. You will never see Zeus or any similar entity.
I am familiar with the concept. The idea is also that it’s no good pulling numbers out of thin air. Bayesian reasoning is about (1) doing certain calculations with probabilities and evidence—by which I mean numerical calculations with numbers that are not made up—and (2) where numerical calculation is not possible, using the ideas as a heuristic background and toolbox. Assigning 10^-bignum to Zeus existing confuses the two.
Look! My office walls are white! I must increase my estimated probability of crows being bright pink from 10^-18 to 10^-15! No, I don’t think I shall.
Earlier you wrote:
The central reason to believe that Zeus doesn’t exist is the general arguments against the existence of gods and similar entities. We don’t see them acting in the world. We know what thunder and lightning are and have no reason to attribute them to Zeus. Our disbelief arose after we already knew about the myths, so the thought experiment is ill-posed. “The fact that there are myths about Zeus is evidence that Zeus exists” is a pretty slogan but does not actually make any sense. Sense nowadays, that is. Of course the ancient Greeks were brought up on such tales and I assume believed in their pantheon as much as the believers of any other religion do in theirs. But the thought experiment is being posed today, addressed to people today, and you claim to have updated—from what prior state? -- from 10^-18 to 10^-15.
There really no point discussing Zeus, period.
The point to have the discussion about Zeus is Politics is the Mind-Killer. The insignificance of Zeus existence is a feature not a bug.
If I would make an argument that the average person’s estimate of the chance that a single unprotected act of sex with a stranger infects them with AIDS is off by two orders of magnitude, then that topic is going to mind kill. The same is true for other interesting claims.