I think you may not be interpreting the phrase “the wrong side of history” as people who say it mean it.
There a classic saying that ”
A new scientific truth does not triumph by convincing its opponents and making them see light, but rather because its opponents eventually die, and a new generation grows up that is familiar with it.” Max Planck
Effectively there’s a position that’s obviously correct but there are also people who are just too hidebound and change averse to recognize it and progress can’t be made until they die off. But progress will be made because the position is correct. When you tell someone they are on the wrong side of history you are reminding them they are behaving like one of the old men that Plank mentions.
Put another way, what it’s saying is “if you look at people who don’t come from the past and don’t have large status quo bias you will notice a trend”.
I wouldn’t wish away war unless I also wished away the things we need to go to war for, in which case you could as easily say that I would wish away cancer treatments or firefighters.
Inter-state war is by far the least common type of warfare in the modern era, although the proxy wars growing out of the Cold War muddy the waters some. Civil and ethnic warfare is much more common, and I don’t think we can say that civil conflicts, at least, can always be described in terms of straightforward aggression and defense against aggression.
(Truthfully I wouldn’t say that for inter-state wars either, not all of them, but they’re a lot easier to spin that way.)
I was using wish away to mean magically get rid of. Unmagically getting rid of it requires unmagically fixing a lot of other things, which is why it hasn’t happened.
Magically getting rig of it strikes me as one of those wishes that will backfire horribly in one of several ways depending on exactly how the wisher defines “war”.
The point being that you can’t infer that everyone believes in X in a society where X exists. They may dislike it but be unable to do anything about it.
The point being that you can’t infer that everyone believes in X in a society where X exists. They may dislike it but be unable to do anything about it.
I’m not making that argument. There polling out there that tells you what people like or dislike. I think that responsibility to protect (R2P) is accepted by a lot of people as a valid reason for military intervention.
Considering it was the norm for several thousand years of history and many philosophers either came out in favor of it or were silent … no, it’s not obviously correct.
There is obviously no one here who will disagree with it.
Mencius Moldbug does argue that all moral changes after a certain point in time should be rolled back. That timeframe does include the abolition of slavery.
I don’t know whether there at the moment someone on LW willing to make the argument for slavery explicitly but you might find people who do have Moldbug’s position.
The last census shows a bunch of neoreactionaries.
A former poster here (known elsewhere on the net as “James A. Donald”) does disagree with it. He believes that slavery is the rightful state for many people. And for what it’s worth, he also believes that moral judgements are matters of fact, in the strong sense of ethical naturalism.
Where can I find evidence linking the sam0345 account to the identity James A. “Jim” Donald?
Somewhat laboriously, by searching LessWrong for his very first postings and working forwards from there, looking for my replies to him and he to me. I recognised him as James A. Donald as soon as he started posting here, from his distinctive writing style and views, which were very familiar to me from his long history of participating in rec.arts.sf.* on USENET. As evidence, I linked to other places on the net where he had posted views identical to what he had just posted here, expressed in very similar terms. He never took notice of my identification, even when replying directly to comments of mine identifying him, but I think it definite.
BTW, while “sam0345” is obviously not a real-world name, I have never seen reason to think that “James A. Donald” is. Searches on that name turn up nothing but his online activity (and a mugshot of an unprepossessing individual of the same name who served 35 years for forgery, and who I have no reason to think has any connection with him). I have almost never, here or anywhere else, seen him post anything personal about himself. He is American, and an Internet engineer, and that’s about it. And 10 inches taller than his wife, for what that’s worth. I have never seen anyone mention having met him. His ownership of jim.com is unusual, in that it goes back well before the advent of public Internet access and easy private ownership of domain names. Try getting a domain name that short and simple nowadays! They’re all taken.
Interesting! Before the great-grandparent I would have assigned a pretty low prior to sam being Jim; I never even considered the possibility explicitly. Now that I’m looking at it closely, sam does use a similar writing style. I’m updating substantially, and now believe there is a roughly 50-75% chance they’re the same person. Thanks for answering!
Effectively there’s a position that’s obviously correct but there are also people who are just too hidebound and change averse to recognize it and progress can’t be made until they die off. But progress will be made because the position is correct. When you tell someone they are on the wrong side of history you are reminding them they are behaving like one of the old men that Plank mentions. Put another way, what it’s saying is “if you look at people who don’t come from the past and don’t have large status quo bias you will notice a trend”.
A bit less than two millenia ago one could have said “Effectively there’s a position—that Jesus gifted eternal life to humanity -- that’s obviously correct but there are also people who are just too hidebound and change averse to recognize it and progress can’t be made until they die off. But progress will be made because the position is correct.”
I was actually thinking of eugenics, which was once a progressivist “obvious correct thing where we just need to wait until these luddites die off until everything will be great” thing, until it wasn’t. Incidentally a counterexample to “Cthulhu always swims left” too.
It’s a case where “correct”, “right side of history” and “progress” dissociate from each other.
I think you could make a case for totalitarianism, too. During the interwar years, not only old-school aristocracy but also market democracy were in some sense seen as being doomed by history; fascism got a lot of its punch from being thought of as a viable alternative to state communism when the dominant ideologies of the pre-WWI scene were temporarily discredited. Now, of course, we tend to see fascism as right-wing, but I get the sense that that mostly has to do with the mainstream left’s adoption of civil rights causes in the postwar era; at the time, it would have been seen (at least by its adherents) as a more syncretic position.
I don’t think you can call WWII an unambiguous win for market democracy, but I do think that it ended up looking a lot more viable in 1946 than it did in, say, 1933.
fascism got a lot of its punch from being thought of as a viable alternative to state communism when the dominant ideologies of the pre-WWI scene were temporarily discredited.
Seen by some as doomed by history, perhaps. The whole point of US liberalism as I understand the FDR version was to provide a democratic alternative; you may recall this enjoyed some success.
Now, of course, we tend to see fascism as right-wing, but I get the sense that that mostly has to do with the mainstream left’s adoption of civil rights causes in the postwar era; at the time, it would have been seen (at least by its adherents) as a more syncretic position.
Indeed, many of the most prominent supporters of fascism came from the traditional left. Mussoloni was originally a socialist, Mosley defected from the Labour party, and they didn’t call it “national socialism” for nothing. In fact part of the reason why communists and fascists had such mutual loathing (aside from actual ideology) was that they were competing for the same set of recruits. Then again, Quisling and Franco especially were firmly in the right-wing camp.
With such concordance from all sides of the political spectrum it’s easy to see how one could conclude that totalitarianism was the next natural stage in history.
Incidentally a counterexample to “Cthulhu always swims left” too.
Interestingly, if you press the people making that claim for what they mean by “left”, their answer boils down to “whatever is in Cthulhu’s forward cone”.
For a more modern example, wouldn’t that have been said for marijuana a few decades ago?
Everyone expected that once the older people who opposed marijuana died off and the hippies grew into positions of power, everyone would want it to be legal. That didn’t work out. (The support for legalization has gone up recently, but not because of this.)
The point is that decades ago, illegal substance use was popular among people of college age. Yet as those people grew up, they stopped using the substances and did not, once they were in power, try to make them legal. I’m not comparing young people today versus older people today, I’m pointing out that all those marijuana smokers from the 1960′s and 1970′s didn’t grow up and legalize pot. I’m sure back then if you went onto a college campus you’d have heard plenty of sentiment of “when the old fogies die off and we’re running the country, we’ll legalize weed”. The old fogies died off; the people from the 60s and 70s grew up to rule the country, and… it didn’t happen.
According to your link, a poll in 1973 shows 43% of students having tried it with 51% in 1971. That 1979 figure is for people who are currently using it. I suspect the percentage that have tried it, rather than the percentage of regular users, is a closer fit to the percentage who would have supported legalization back then.
Furthermore, even if the percentage was under 50%, it’s clear that once they grew older they didn’t exert the massive influence over marijjuana policy that would have been expected. If 30% or 40% of 25-40 year olds actively support something, even if they are not a majority, that’s going to be very prominent in politics, and heavily drive the discourse, and that just hasn’t happened. (And even 30% or 40% might be enough to pass legalization considering that a lot of the remainder are probably just neutral on the issue.)
If 30% or 40% of 25-40 year olds actively support something, even if they are not a majority, that’s going to be very prominent in politics, and heavily drive the discourse
Not really. US politics is a lot about what the kind of people who donate to political campaign thinks about issues. The Koch brothers are for example old people supporting marijjuana legislation.
It’s not unheard of for people who’ve recently tried various substances to nonetheless support stricter restrictions on them. The usual narrative goes something like “I can handle this, but there are lots of people that can’t, and we have to keep it out of their hands”, though the people in question vary—drawing class, demographic, or cognitive lines is common.
There can be other ulterior motives, too. In the early 2000s, a few marijuana growers in Northern California were among the opponents of a ballot proposition that would have legalized it in the state—because legalization was expected to harm their profit margins, doing more damage than than removing the chance of arrest would have made up for.
The usual narrative goes something like “I can handle this, but there are lots of people that can’t, and we have to keep it out of their hands”, though the people in question vary—drawing class, demographic, or cognitive lines is common.
Or, alternately, “It was a mistake for me to do it, and I was lucky to get away without punishment, but legalizing would encourage other people to make the same mistake.” I seem to recall a few U.S. politicians on both sides of the aisle saying things of this nature.
I would believe that people who used drugs back then would say this now. I find it hard, however, to believe that people who used drugs back then would have said it back then, and the point is that people back then thought they would legalize weed once the old fogies died off.
Was the forceful kind ever an obviously correct/leftist position? To my mind non-violent eugenics is still obviously the correct thing where we just need to wait until the luddites die off—it’s just the association with the Nazis has given ludditery a big (but ultimately temporary) boost.
The authors theorized that the best solution for the Swedish welfare state (“folkhem”) was to prevent at the outset the hereditary transfer of undesirable characteristics that caused the individual affected to become sooner or later a burden on society. The authors therefore proposed a “corrective social reform” under which sterilization was to prevent “nonviable individuals” from spreading their undesirable traits.[4]
Put another way, what it’s saying is “if you look at people who don’t come from the past and don’t have large status quo bias you will notice a trend”.
Is this falsifiable?
I suspect it is falsifiable. I might unpack it as the following sub claims
1 Degree of status quo bias is positively correlated to time spent in a particular status quo (my gut tells me there should be a causal link, but I bet correlation is all you could find in studies)
2 On issue X, belief that X[past] is the correct way to do X is correlated with time spent living in an X[past] regime.
2.5 Possibly a corollary to the above, but maybe a separate claim: among people who you would expect to have the least status quo bias position X[other] is favored at much higher rates than among the general population
For most issues 2 and 2.5 can probably be checked with good polling data. Point 1 is the kind of thing its possible to do studies on, so I think its in principle falsifiable, though I don’t know if such studies have actually been done.
2) is also what you would expect to see if X[past] was indeed better than X[other].
2.5) Not having status quo bias isn’t equivalent to being unbiased. A large number of the people that are least likely to have status quo bias are going to be at the other end of the spectrum—chronic contrarians.
Effectively there’s a position that’s obviously correct
In politics, no position is obviously correct. Claiming that one’s own position is obviously correct or that history is on our side is just a way of browbeating others instead of actually making a case.
Claiming that the opponents of some newly viral idea are “on the wrong side of history” is like claiming that Klingon is the language of the future based on the growth rate when the number of speakers has actually gone from zero to a few hundred.
When you tell someone they are on the wrong side of history you are reminding them
No—you are telling them. To remind someone of a thing is to tell them what they already know. To talk of “reminding” in this context is to presume that they already know that they are wrong but won’t admit it, and is just another way of speaking in bad faith to avoid actually making a case.
Put another way, what it’s saying is “if you look at people who don’t come from the past and don’t have large status quo bias you will notice a trend”.
One’s person status quo bias is another person’s Chesterton fence. The quote from which this comment tree branches is from Chesterton.
I think you may not be interpreting the phrase “the wrong side of history” as people who say it mean it.
There a classic saying that ”
A new scientific truth does not triumph by convincing its opponents and making them see light, but rather because its opponents eventually die, and a new generation grows up that is familiar with it.” Max Planck
Effectively there’s a position that’s obviously correct but there are also people who are just too hidebound and change averse to recognize it and progress can’t be made until they die off. But progress will be made because the position is correct. When you tell someone they are on the wrong side of history you are reminding them they are behaving like one of the old men that Plank mentions. Put another way, what it’s saying is “if you look at people who don’t come from the past and don’t have large status quo bias you will notice a trend”.
In physics, yes. In history / political science, no.
“Slavery is wrong” isn’t obviously correct?
I find this comment particularly ironic given your chosen username.
“War is wrong” isn’t obviously correct?
I think the majority of the population believes that there are valid reasons to start a war. R2P etc.
I was talking about war,not wars. Everybody would wish away war if they could. Many people think THIS war need to be fought.
I wouldn’t wish away war unless I also wished away the things we need to go to war for, in which case you could as easily say that I would wish away cancer treatments or firefighters.
People go to war because of war, because they have been attacked. That would get wished away as part of the deal.
Or they go to war less honorable reasons like grabbing resources, or making forcible converts to a religion.
Can’t see anything I’d want to keep.
Or because they are being mistreated by others in ways that don’t qualify as war.
Inter-state war is by far the least common type of warfare in the modern era, although the proxy wars growing out of the Cold War muddy the waters some. Civil and ethnic warfare is much more common, and I don’t think we can say that civil conflicts, at least, can always be described in terms of straightforward aggression and defense against aggression.
(Truthfully I wouldn’t say that for inter-state wars either, not all of them, but they’re a lot easier to spin that way.)
I was using wish away to mean magically get rid of. Unmagically getting rid of it requires unmagically fixing a lot of other things, which is why it hasn’t happened.
Magically getting rig of it strikes me as one of those wishes that will backfire horribly in one of several ways depending on exactly how the wisher defines “war”.
Depends. For starters are you counting revolutions and civil wars as “wars”?
The point being that you can’t infer that everyone believes in X in a society where X exists. They may dislike it but be unable to do anything about it.
I’m not making that argument. There polling out there that tells you what people like or dislike. I think that responsibility to protect (R2P) is accepted by a lot of people as a valid reason for military intervention.
Considering it was the norm for several thousand years of history and many philosophers either came out in favor of it or were silent … no, it’s not obviously correct.
There is obviously no one here who will disagree with it. But it is still a moral judgment, not a matter of fact.
Mencius Moldbug does argue that all moral changes after a certain point in time should be rolled back. That timeframe does include the abolition of slavery.
I don’t know whether there at the moment someone on LW willing to make the argument for slavery explicitly but you might find people who do have Moldbug’s position.
The last census shows a bunch of neoreactionaries.
A former poster here (known elsewhere on the net as “James A. Donald”) does disagree with it. He believes that slavery is the rightful state for many people. And for what it’s worth, he also believes that moral judgements are matters of fact, in the strong sense of ethical naturalism.
Where can I find evidence linking the sam0345 account to the identity James A. “Jim” Donald?
Somewhat laboriously, by searching LessWrong for his very first postings and working forwards from there, looking for my replies to him and he to me. I recognised him as James A. Donald as soon as he started posting here, from his distinctive writing style and views, which were very familiar to me from his long history of participating in rec.arts.sf.* on USENET. As evidence, I linked to other places on the net where he had posted views identical to what he had just posted here, expressed in very similar terms. He never took notice of my identification, even when replying directly to comments of mine identifying him, but I think it definite.
BTW, while “sam0345” is obviously not a real-world name, I have never seen reason to think that “James A. Donald” is. Searches on that name turn up nothing but his online activity (and a mugshot of an unprepossessing individual of the same name who served 35 years for forgery, and who I have no reason to think has any connection with him). I have almost never, here or anywhere else, seen him post anything personal about himself. He is American, and an Internet engineer, and that’s about it. And 10 inches taller than his wife, for what that’s worth. I have never seen anyone mention having met him. His ownership of jim.com is unusual, in that it goes back well before the advent of public Internet access and easy private ownership of domain names. Try getting a domain name that short and simple nowadays! They’re all taken.
Interesting! Before the great-grandparent I would have assigned a pretty low prior to sam being Jim; I never even considered the possibility explicitly. Now that I’m looking at it closely, sam does use a similar writing style. I’m updating substantially, and now believe there is a roughly 50-75% chance they’re the same person. Thanks for answering!
In which meaning do you use the word “correct”?
In which meaning do you use the word meaning?
Is this falsifiable?
Sure, just step back in time.
A bit less than two millenia ago one could have said “Effectively there’s a position—that Jesus gifted eternal life to humanity -- that’s obviously correct but there are also people who are just too hidebound and change averse to recognize it and progress can’t be made until they die off. But progress will be made because the position is correct.”
I was actually thinking of eugenics, which was once a progressivist “obvious correct thing where we just need to wait until these luddites die off until everything will be great” thing, until it wasn’t. Incidentally a counterexample to “Cthulhu always swims left” too.
It’s a case where “correct”, “right side of history” and “progress” dissociate from each other.
I think you could make a case for totalitarianism, too. During the interwar years, not only old-school aristocracy but also market democracy were in some sense seen as being doomed by history; fascism got a lot of its punch from being thought of as a viable alternative to state communism when the dominant ideologies of the pre-WWI scene were temporarily discredited. Now, of course, we tend to see fascism as right-wing, but I get the sense that that mostly has to do with the mainstream left’s adoption of civil rights causes in the postwar era; at the time, it would have been seen (at least by its adherents) as a more syncretic position.
I don’t think you can call WWII an unambiguous win for market democracy, but I do think that it ended up looking a lot more viable in 1946 than it did in, say, 1933.
Note terms like the third position or third way.
Seen by some as doomed by history, perhaps. The whole point of US liberalism as I understand the FDR version was to provide a democratic alternative; you may recall this enjoyed some success.
Indeed, many of the most prominent supporters of fascism came from the traditional left. Mussoloni was originally a socialist, Mosley defected from the Labour party, and they didn’t call it “national socialism” for nothing. In fact part of the reason why communists and fascists had such mutual loathing (aside from actual ideology) was that they were competing for the same set of recruits. Then again, Quisling and Franco especially were firmly in the right-wing camp.
With such concordance from all sides of the political spectrum it’s easy to see how one could conclude that totalitarianism was the next natural stage in history.
Interestingly, if you press the people making that claim for what they mean by “left”, their answer boils down to “whatever is in Cthulhu’s forward cone”.
For a more modern example, wouldn’t that have been said for marijuana a few decades ago?
Everyone expected that once the older people who opposed marijuana died off and the hippies grew into positions of power, everyone would want it to be legal. That didn’t work out. (The support for legalization has gone up recently, but not because of this.)
Guilty as charged.
The point is that decades ago, illegal substance use was popular among people of college age. Yet as those people grew up, they stopped using the substances and did not, once they were in power, try to make them legal. I’m not comparing young people today versus older people today, I’m pointing out that all those marijuana smokers from the 1960′s and 1970′s didn’t grow up and legalize pot. I’m sure back then if you went onto a college campus you’d have heard plenty of sentiment of “when the old fogies die off and we’re running the country, we’ll legalize weed”. The old fogies died off; the people from the 60s and 70s grew up to rule the country, and… it didn’t happen.
The peak year for the popularity of marijuana use among young adults (18-25 years old) was 1979, and it was still less than half.
According to your link, a poll in 1973 shows 43% of students having tried it with 51% in 1971. That 1979 figure is for people who are currently using it. I suspect the percentage that have tried it, rather than the percentage of regular users, is a closer fit to the percentage who would have supported legalization back then.
Furthermore, even if the percentage was under 50%, it’s clear that once they grew older they didn’t exert the massive influence over marijjuana policy that would have been expected. If 30% or 40% of 25-40 year olds actively support something, even if they are not a majority, that’s going to be very prominent in politics, and heavily drive the discourse, and that just hasn’t happened. (And even 30% or 40% might be enough to pass legalization considering that a lot of the remainder are probably just neutral on the issue.)
Not really. US politics is a lot about what the kind of people who donate to political campaign thinks about issues. The Koch brothers are for example old people supporting marijjuana legislation.
It’s not unheard of for people who’ve recently tried various substances to nonetheless support stricter restrictions on them. The usual narrative goes something like “I can handle this, but there are lots of people that can’t, and we have to keep it out of their hands”, though the people in question vary—drawing class, demographic, or cognitive lines is common.
There can be other ulterior motives, too. In the early 2000s, a few marijuana growers in Northern California were among the opponents of a ballot proposition that would have legalized it in the state—because legalization was expected to harm their profit margins, doing more damage than than removing the chance of arrest would have made up for.
Or, alternately, “It was a mistake for me to do it, and I was lucky to get away without punishment, but legalizing would encourage other people to make the same mistake.” I seem to recall a few U.S. politicians on both sides of the aisle saying things of this nature.
I would believe that people who used drugs back then would say this now. I find it hard, however, to believe that people who used drugs back then would have said it back then, and the point is that people back then thought they would legalize weed once the old fogies died off.
How do you know that this wasn’t the cause?
Because as army1987 points out, legalization is supported by the young, not by people who were young in the 1960′s and 1970′s.
Was the forceful kind ever an obviously correct/leftist position? To my mind non-violent eugenics is still obviously the correct thing where we just need to wait until the luddites die off—it’s just the association with the Nazis has given ludditery a big (but ultimately temporary) boost.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Compulsory_sterilisation_in_Sweden
Do you actually mean non-coercive? There are great many ways to apply pressure on people without actually getting violent....
I suspect it is falsifiable. I might unpack it as the following sub claims
1 Degree of status quo bias is positively correlated to time spent in a particular status quo (my gut tells me there should be a causal link, but I bet correlation is all you could find in studies)
2 On issue X, belief that X[past] is the correct way to do X is correlated with time spent living in an X[past] regime.
2.5 Possibly a corollary to the above, but maybe a separate claim: among people who you would expect to have the least status quo bias position X[other] is favored at much higher rates than among the general population
For most issues 2 and 2.5 can probably be checked with good polling data. Point 1 is the kind of thing its possible to do studies on, so I think its in principle falsifiable, though I don’t know if such studies have actually been done.
2) is also what you would expect to see if X[past] was indeed better than X[other].
2.5) Not having status quo bias isn’t equivalent to being unbiased. A large number of the people that are least likely to have status quo bias are going to be at the other end of the spectrum—chronic contrarians.
Note that which X is better may depend on circumstances (e.g. technological level).
In politics, no position is obviously correct. Claiming that one’s own position is obviously correct or that history is on our side is just a way of browbeating others instead of actually making a case.
Claiming that the opponents of some newly viral idea are “on the wrong side of history” is like claiming that Klingon is the language of the future based on the growth rate when the number of speakers has actually gone from zero to a few hundred.
No—you are telling them. To remind someone of a thing is to tell them what they already know. To talk of “reminding” in this context is to presume that they already know that they are wrong but won’t admit it, and is just another way of speaking in bad faith to avoid actually making a case.
One’s person status quo bias is another person’s Chesterton fence. The quote from which this comment tree branches is from Chesterton.