My current belief in the probability of Zeus is uncertain enough that I have no idea if it changed by orders of magnitude, and I am very surprised that you seem to think the probability is in a narrow enough range that claiming to have increased it by order of magnitude becomes meaningful.
My current belief in the probability of Zeus is uncertain enough that I have no idea if it changed by orders of magnitude, and I am very surprised that you seem to think the probability is in a narrow enough range that claiming to have increased it by order of magnitude becomes meaningful.
You can compute the likelihood ratio without knowing the absolute probability.
Being surprised is generally a sign that it’s useful to update a belief.
I would add that given my model of you it doesn’t surprise me that this surprises you.