I’m not sure (see footnote 7), but I think it’s quite likely, basically because:
It’s a simpler explanation than the one you give (so the bar for evidence should probably be lower).
We know from polling data that Hispanic voters—who are disproportionately foreign-born—shifted a lot toward Trump.
The biggest shifts happened in places like Queens, NY, which has many immigrants but (I think?) not very much anti-immigrant sentiment.
That said, I’m not that confident and I wouldn’t be shocked if your explanation is correct. Here are some thoughts on how you could try to differentiate between them:
You could look on the precinct-level rather than the county-level. Some precincts will be very high-% foreign-born (above 50%). If those precincts shifted more than surrounding precincts, that would be evidence in favor of my hypothesis. If they shifted less, that would be evidence in favor of yours.
If someone did a poll with the questions “How did you vote in 2020”, “How did you vote in 2024″, and “Were you born in the U.S.”, that could more directly answer the question.
I’m not sure (see footnote 7), but I think it’s quite likely, basically because:
It’s a simpler explanation than the one you give (so the bar for evidence should probably be lower).
We know from polling data that Hispanic voters—who are disproportionately foreign-born—shifted a lot toward Trump.
The biggest shifts happened in places like Queens, NY, which has many immigrants but (I think?) not very much anti-immigrant sentiment.
That said, I’m not that confident and I wouldn’t be shocked if your explanation is correct. Here are some thoughts on how you could try to differentiate between them:
You could look on the precinct-level rather than the county-level. Some precincts will be very high-% foreign-born (above 50%). If those precincts shifted more than surrounding precincts, that would be evidence in favor of my hypothesis. If they shifted less, that would be evidence in favor of yours.
If someone did a poll with the questions “How did you vote in 2020”, “How did you vote in 2024″, and “Were you born in the U.S.”, that could more directly answer the question.