If you ask people who they’re voting for, 50% will say they’re voting for Harris. But if you ask them who most of their neighbors are voting for, only 25% will say Harris and 75% will say Trump!
Note this issue could be fixed if you instead ask people who the neighbour immediately to the right of their house/apartment will vote for, which I think is compatible with what we know about this poll. That said, the critique of “do people actually know” stands.
The story I read about why neighbor polling is supposed to correct for bias in specifically the last few presidential elections is that some people plan to vote for Trump, but are ashamed of this, and don’t want to admit it to people who aren’t verified Trump supporters. So if you ask them who they plan to vote for, they’ll dissemble. But if you ask them who their neighbors are voting for, that gives them permission to share their true opinion non-attributively.
People generally assume those around them agree with them (even when they don’t see loud support of their position—see “silent majority”). So when you ask what their neighbors think, they will guess their neighbors have the same views as themselves, and will report their own beliefs with plausible deniability.
Yeah but a bunch of people might actually answer how their neigbours will vote, given that that’s what the pollster asked—and if the question is phrased as the post assumes, that’s going to be a massive issue.
Note this issue could be fixed if you instead ask people who the neighbour immediately to the right of their house/apartment will vote for, which I think is compatible with what we know about this poll. That said, the critique of “do people actually know” stands.
The story I read about why neighbor polling is supposed to correct for bias in specifically the last few presidential elections is that some people plan to vote for Trump, but are ashamed of this, and don’t want to admit it to people who aren’t verified Trump supporters. So if you ask them who they plan to vote for, they’ll dissemble. But if you ask them who their neighbors are voting for, that gives them permission to share their true opinion non-attributively.
If people are ashamed to vote for Trump, why would they let their neighbours know?
People generally assume those around them agree with them (even when they don’t see loud support of their position—see “silent majority”). So when you ask what their neighbors think, they will guess their neighbors have the same views as themselves, and will report their own beliefs with plausible deniability.
Yeah but a bunch of people might actually answer how their neigbours will vote, given that that’s what the pollster asked—and if the question is phrased as the post assumes, that’s going to be a massive issue.