You aren’t really assuming human level AGI. You are assuming human level AGI that runs as much faster than a human as a computer is at doing arithmetic, which is a completely different sort of thing. It’s basically, ‘assuming we have an AI that is equivalent to all of humanity put together, but with perfect coordination’ which is literally a superintelligence. There is no reason to make that leap.
Computing technology could possibly top out at, human intelligence but fifty times slower, for a few decades after its invention. Clarity in knowing what your assumptions are is crucial when evaluating thought experiments. There is no reason to believe ‘ems’ would actually run fast (nor, necessarily, that they wouldn’t.)
For the record, once actual human level intelligence is believed close, I expect someone will spend a crazy amount of resources to get that human level AGI trained long before it could possibly run at decent speed. This may happen several times before real human level is reached.
You aren’t really assuming human level AGI. You are assuming human level AGI that runs as much faster than a human as a computer is at doing arithmetic, which is a completely different sort of thing. It’s basically, ‘assuming we have an AI that is equivalent to all of humanity put together, but with perfect coordination’ which is literally a superintelligence. There is no reason to make that leap.
Computing technology could possibly top out at, human intelligence but fifty times slower, for a few decades after its invention. Clarity in knowing what your assumptions are is crucial when evaluating thought experiments. There is no reason to believe ‘ems’ would actually run fast (nor, necessarily, that they wouldn’t.)
For the record, once actual human level intelligence is believed close, I expect someone will spend a crazy amount of resources to get that human level AGI trained long before it could possibly run at decent speed. This may happen several times before real human level is reached.