These aren’t necessarily milestones rather than capabilites that can come on a sliding scale, but:
Tools to accelerate alignment research (which are also tools to accelerate AGI research)
AI assistants for conceptual research
Novel modes of AI-enabled writing
AI assistants for interpretability or AI design
Value learning schemes at various stages along both conceptual and technological development
Low conceptual, high technological: people think it has a lot of holes, but it works well with SOTA AI designs and good tools have been developed to handle the human-interaction parts of the value learning.
High conceptual, low technological: Pretty much everyone is, if not excited by it, not actively worried about it, but it would require developing entirely new infrastructure to use.
That said, I’m not sure how much governance plans should adapt based on milestones. Maybe we should expect governance to be slow to respond, and therefore requiring plans that are good when applied broadly and without much awareness of context.
These aren’t necessarily milestones rather than capabilites that can come on a sliding scale, but:
Tools to accelerate alignment research (which are also tools to accelerate AGI research)
AI assistants for conceptual research
Novel modes of AI-enabled writing
AI assistants for interpretability or AI design
Value learning schemes at various stages along both conceptual and technological development
Low conceptual, high technological: people think it has a lot of holes, but it works well with SOTA AI designs and good tools have been developed to handle the human-interaction parts of the value learning.
High conceptual, low technological: Pretty much everyone is, if not excited by it, not actively worried about it, but it would require developing entirely new infrastructure to use.
That said, I’m not sure how much governance plans should adapt based on milestones. Maybe we should expect governance to be slow to respond, and therefore requiring plans that are good when applied broadly and without much awareness of context.