I think I agree. I also think wedrifid wanted to talk about predictions of what the candidates do, even if they are not guaranteed not to change their mind.
This doesn’t seem impossible, just harder. You’d have to make a guess as to how likely the candidates are to implement a different policy from the one they promised, as well as the effect the possible policies will have.
The candidates do have an incentive to signal that they are unlikely to “waffle”. If you are relatively certain to implement your policies, then at least those who agree with you will predict that you’ll have a good effect. If you look like you might change your mind, even your supporters might decide to take a different option, because who knows what you will do?
In theory, you might gain a bigger advantage by somehow signaling that you will change your mind for good reasons. Then if new information comes up in the future, you’re a better choice than anyone who promises not to change their mind at all. But this is trickier and less convincing.
I think I agree. I also think wedrifid wanted to talk about predictions of what the candidates do, even if they are not guaranteed not to change their mind.
This doesn’t seem impossible, just harder. You’d have to make a guess as to how likely the candidates are to implement a different policy from the one they promised, as well as the effect the possible policies will have.
The candidates do have an incentive to signal that they are unlikely to “waffle”. If you are relatively certain to implement your policies, then at least those who agree with you will predict that you’ll have a good effect. If you look like you might change your mind, even your supporters might decide to take a different option, because who knows what you will do?
In theory, you might gain a bigger advantage by somehow signaling that you will change your mind for good reasons. Then if new information comes up in the future, you’re a better choice than anyone who promises not to change their mind at all. But this is trickier and less convincing.