As Eliezer says, on short time scales (days, weeks, months) we change our minds less often than we expect to. However, it’s worth noting that, on larger time scales (years, decades) the opposite seems to be true. Also, our emotional state changes more frequently than we expect it to, even on short time scales. I can’t seem to recall my exact source on this second point at the moment (I think it was some video we watched in my high school psychology class), though, anecdotally, I’ve observed it to be true in my own life. Like, when I’m feeling good, I may think thoughts like “I’m a generally happy person”, or “my current lifestyle is working very well, and I should not change it”, which are falsifiable claims/predictions that are based on the highly questionable assumption that my current emotional state will persist into both the near and distant future. Similarly, I may think the negations of such thoughts when I’m feeling bad. As a result, I have to remind myself to be extra skeptical/critical of falsifiable claims/predictions that agree too strongly my current emotional state.
As Eliezer says, on short time scales (days, weeks, months) we change our minds less often than we expect to. However, it’s worth noting that, on larger time scales (years, decades) the opposite seems to be true. Also, our emotional state changes more frequently than we expect it to, even on short time scales. I can’t seem to recall my exact source on this second point at the moment (I think it was some video we watched in my high school psychology class), though, anecdotally, I’ve observed it to be true in my own life. Like, when I’m feeling good, I may think thoughts like “I’m a generally happy person”, or “my current lifestyle is working very well, and I should not change it”, which are falsifiable claims/predictions that are based on the highly questionable assumption that my current emotional state will persist into both the near and distant future. Similarly, I may think the negations of such thoughts when I’m feeling bad. As a result, I have to remind myself to be extra skeptical/critical of falsifiable claims/predictions that agree too strongly my current emotional state.