In this post http://lesswrong.com/lw/f37/naive_tdt_bayes_nets_and_counterfactual_mugging/ I argued, as an aside, for another principle: that it shouldn’t matter whether you were being simulated or whether anyone was simply predicting the result of that simulation.
Then (very roughly) CDT behaves as EDT/UDT if you assume that Newcomb is simulating you, because you can’t tell whether you’re the simulation or the “real” you. But this argument also argues for the counterfactual mugging, unlike yours.
In this post http://lesswrong.com/lw/f37/naive_tdt_bayes_nets_and_counterfactual_mugging/ I argued, as an aside, for another principle: that it shouldn’t matter whether you were being simulated or whether anyone was simply predicting the result of that simulation.
Then (very roughly) CDT behaves as EDT/UDT if you assume that Newcomb is simulating you, because you can’t tell whether you’re the simulation or the “real” you. But this argument also argues for the counterfactual mugging, unlike yours.