I dislike this type of post. Predictions are nice and all, but I can take no updates from these predictions because I know nothing about the author or any reason to give their predictions credence and no real evidence is given to justify the predictions (evidence could include something like making real money bets on prediction markets, not just data and arguments!). So for me this post is nothing but speculation, and I’m disappointed that LessWrong readers voted it up.
Note: This is nothing against the post’s author! I think it’s totally fine for a person to speculate. I’m just both surprised this became a frontpage post and that it was voted up!
I am honestly very surprised it became a front page post too! It totally is just speculation.
I tried to be super clear that these were just babbled guesses, and I was mainly just telling people to try to do same, rather than trusting my starting point here.
The other thing that surprised me is that there haven’t been too many comments saying “this part is off”, or “you missed trend X!”. I was kind of hoping for that!
I agree the author should attach credences. I’d also appreciate a little more specificity, for example with the prediction, “Google releases something competitive to ChatGPT.” I’m not sure whether that refers to ChatGPT-3.5 or ChatGPT-4 and the meaning here is actually quite important.
I dislike this type of post. Predictions are nice and all, but I can take no updates from these predictions because I know nothing about the author or any reason to give their predictions credence and no real evidence is given to justify the predictions (evidence could include something like making real money bets on prediction markets, not just data and arguments!). So for me this post is nothing but speculation, and I’m disappointed that LessWrong readers voted it up.
Note: This is nothing against the post’s author! I think it’s totally fine for a person to speculate. I’m just both surprised this became a frontpage post and that it was voted up!
I am honestly very surprised it became a front page post too! It totally is just speculation.
I tried to be super clear that these were just babbled guesses, and I was mainly just telling people to try to do same, rather than trusting my starting point here.
The other thing that surprised me is that there haven’t been too many comments saying “this part is off”, or “you missed trend X!”. I was kind of hoping for that!
I really like this post, but more for:
Babbling ideas I might not have thought of previously (e.g. the focus here on long-time horizon tasks)
Good exercise to do as a group to then dig into cruxes
than updating my own credences on specifics.
I agree the author should attach credences. I’d also appreciate a little more specificity, for example with the prediction, “Google releases something competitive to ChatGPT.” I’m not sure whether that refers to ChatGPT-3.5 or ChatGPT-4 and the meaning here is actually quite important.