It matters a lot what specifically it means to be “as good at humans at most things”. The vast majority of jobs include both legible, formal tasks and “be a good employee” requirements, much more nebulous and difficult to measure. Being just as good as the median employee at the formal job description, without the flexibility and trust from being a functioning member of society is NOT enough to replace most workers. It’ll replace some, of course.
That said, the fact that “lump of labor” IS a fallacy, and there’s not a fixed amount of work to be done, which more workers simply spread more thinly, means that it’s OK if it displaces many workers—there will be other things they can valuably do.
By that argument, human-level AI is effectively just immigration.
Being just as good as the median employee at the formal job description, without the flexibility and trust from being a functioning member of society is NOT enough to replace most workers. It’ll replace some, of course.
Yup, the context was talking about future AI which can e.g. have the idea that it will found a company, and then do every step to make that happen, and it can do that about as well as the best human (but not dramatically better than the best human).
I definitely sometimes talk to people who say “yes, I agree that that scenario will happen eventually, but it will not significantly change the world. AI would still be just another technology.” (As opposed to “…and then obviously 99.99…% of future companies will be founded by autonomous AIs, because if it becomes possible to mass-produce Jeff Bezos-es by the trillions, then that’s what will happen. And similarly in every other aspect of the economy.)
By that argument, human-level AI is effectively just immigration.
I think “the effective global labor pool increases by a factor of 1000, consisting of 99.9% AIs” is sometimes a useful scenario to bring up in conversation, but it’s also misleading in certain ways. My actual belief is that humans would rapidly have no ability to contribute to the economy in a post-AGI world, for a similar reason as a moody 7-year-old has essentially no ability to contribute to the economy today (in fact, people would pay good money to keep a moody 7-year-old out of their office or factory).
It matters a lot what specifically it means to be “as good at humans at most things”. The vast majority of jobs include both legible, formal tasks and “be a good employee” requirements, much more nebulous and difficult to measure. Being just as good as the median employee at the formal job description, without the flexibility and trust from being a functioning member of society is NOT enough to replace most workers. It’ll replace some, of course.
That said, the fact that “lump of labor” IS a fallacy, and there’s not a fixed amount of work to be done, which more workers simply spread more thinly, means that it’s OK if it displaces many workers—there will be other things they can valuably do.
By that argument, human-level AI is effectively just immigration.
Yup, the context was talking about future AI which can e.g. have the idea that it will found a company, and then do every step to make that happen, and it can do that about as well as the best human (but not dramatically better than the best human).
I definitely sometimes talk to people who say “yes, I agree that that scenario will happen eventually, but it will not significantly change the world. AI would still be just another technology.” (As opposed to “…and then obviously 99.99…% of future companies will be founded by autonomous AIs, because if it becomes possible to mass-produce Jeff Bezos-es by the trillions, then that’s what will happen. And similarly in every other aspect of the economy.)
I think “the effective global labor pool increases by a factor of 1000, consisting of 99.9% AIs” is sometimes a useful scenario to bring up in conversation, but it’s also misleading in certain ways. My actual belief is that humans would rapidly have no ability to contribute to the economy in a post-AGI world, for a similar reason as a moody 7-year-old has essentially no ability to contribute to the economy today (in fact, people would pay good money to keep a moody 7-year-old out of their office or factory).