The ideas in itare certainly not the most important, but another really striking posts for me is “Surprised by Brains.” The lines “Skeptic: Yeah? Let’s hear you assign a probability that a brain the size of a planet could produce a new complex design in a single day. / Believer: The size of a planet? (Thinks.) Um… ten percent.” in particular are really helpful in fighting biases that cause me to regard conservative estimates as somehow more virtuous.
I’m going to have to choose “How to Convince Me That 2 + 2 = 3.” It did quite a lot to illuminate the true nature of uncertainty.
http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/09/how-to-convince.html
The ideas in itare certainly not the most important, but another really striking posts for me is “Surprised by Brains.” The lines “Skeptic: Yeah? Let’s hear you assign a probability that a brain the size of a planet could produce a new complex design in a single day. / Believer: The size of a planet? (Thinks.) Um… ten percent.” in particular are really helpful in fighting biases that cause me to regard conservative estimates as somehow more virtuous.