It seems to me that public outcry could lead to a small but not large delay in developing AGI, and potentially could provide more time and funding for alignment work.
This is a clear and compelling argument for why AI development will not be regulated, and those regulations honored by they military. I think this argument also applies to AGI.
However, we’re more concerned with AGI pursued by private organizations. It seems those could be regulated, and those regulations enforced. It seems to me that the limiting factor is recognition that the Chinese government is unlikely to honor such an agreement, even if it is made, and unlikely to enforce it on Chinese companies. As far as I can tell, no other government has much likelihood of being first to AGI, even with a delay.
Therefore, I’d guess that Western citizens and governments might put in place regulations that would slow down our development of AGI by a little, but not ones that would slow it down by a lot.
It seems to me that public outcry could lead to a small but not large delay in developing AGI, and potentially could provide more time and funding for alignment work.
This is a clear and compelling argument for why AI development will not be regulated, and those regulations honored by they military. I think this argument also applies to AGI.
However, we’re more concerned with AGI pursued by private organizations. It seems those could be regulated, and those regulations enforced. It seems to me that the limiting factor is recognition that the Chinese government is unlikely to honor such an agreement, even if it is made, and unlikely to enforce it on Chinese companies. As far as I can tell, no other government has much likelihood of being first to AGI, even with a delay.
Therefore, I’d guess that Western citizens and governments might put in place regulations that would slow down our development of AGI by a little, but not ones that would slow it down by a lot.