Most technological developments seem to go from “We don’t know how to do this at all” to “We know how to do this, but actually doing it costs a fortune” to “We know how to do this at an affordable price.” WBE could be an exception, though, and completely skip over the second stage.
It looks like “enough knowledge of brains on the microscopic level to program a simulation” might be the limiting factor.
In which case, we have a hardware overhang and an explosive em transition.
Most technological developments seem to go from “We don’t know how to do this at all” to “We know how to do this, but actually doing it costs a fortune” to “We know how to do this at an affordable price.” WBE could be an exception, though, and completely skip over the second stage.