The border between North Korea and China is easy to cross, and about half of the North Koreans who go to China later return, in spite of North Korea’s poverty.
How does the North Korean government do such a good job under such difficult circumstances?
Holy shit, what utter raving idiocy. The author has obviously never emigrated from anywhere nor seriously talked with anyone who did. People return because they miss their families, friends, native language and habits… I know a fair number of people who returned from Western countries to Russia and that’s the only reason they cite.
I had previously no idea that half of the North Koreans who cross the border never return. If it is so, it is an extremely strong indicator that the life in the DPRK is very unpleasant for its own citizens. To imply that this piece of data is in fact evidence for the contrary is absurd.
To emigrate from DPRK to China means that you lose your home, your family, your friends, your job. You have to start from scratch, from the lowest levels in social hierarchy, capable of doing only the worst available jobs, without knowledge of local language (which is not easy to learn, given that the destination country is China), probably facing xenophobia. If you are 40 or older, there is almost no chance that your situation will improve significantly.
The North Koreans who actually travel abroad are probably not the poorest. They have to afford a ticket, at least. They have something to lose. In North-Korean style of tyrannies, families are often persecuted because of emigration of their members. In spite of all that, half of the North Koreans never return (if the linked post tells the truth) and the author says about it that “the North Korean government [does] such a good job under such difficult circumstances”, and then needs to explain that “success” by group identity. Thats an absurdity.
So the rate of returning emigrants strikes you as incredibly high, and strikes Roberts as incredibly low (and I uncritically adopted what I read, foolishly). I think what’s really needed here is more data—a comparative analysis of rates of return that takes into important covariates into account.
After thinking about it for a while, rate of return may not be a good indicator, at least for comparative analyses. Imagine two countries A and K. 10% of citizens of both these countries would prefer to live somewhere else.
In country A, the government doesn’t care a bit about emigration (if government exists in that country at all). The country is mainly producer of agricultural goods, with minimal international trade. Nearest country with substantially better living conditions, country X, is 3000 km away.
In country K, the government is afraid of all its citizens emigrating, and tries to make it as difficult as possible, by issuing passports only to loyal people, for instance. Emigration is portrayed as treason. X is a neigbour country.
Now, in country A (African type) there is no need for people to travel abroad, except emigration. Business travelers are rare, since there are almost no businesses owned by A’s citizens, and to travel 3000 km for pleasure is out of reach for almost all of A’s inhabitants. Therefore, meeting A’s citizen in X, we can expect that he is an emigrant with 99% probability, and the return rate would be in order of 1%.
In country K (Korean type) the people who can travel abroad are workers of government organisations sent on business trips, people from border areas coming to X to do some private business (if there are private businesses in K) and the K’s elite on vacations. Now, meeting K’s citizen in X, the probability that he is an emigrant is much lower.
So we have expected high return rate for A and low for K, whereas the average desire to emigrate can be the same.
This may be the reason of disagreement. Roberts has probably compared North Korea to African countries, and was surprised that not all travellers are emigrants. I have compared it to East European communist regimes and concluded that if half of the travellers never return, certainly even much of the loyal supporters of the regime betray it when they have an opportunity.
To make sensible analysis, we should take into account rather the ratio of emigration to overall population. Of course, such analysis would be distorted due to different difficulty of emigration from different countries. The return rate seems to overcome this distortion, but it probably brings at least as big own problems.
Seth Roberts makes an intriguing observation about North Korea and Penn State. Teaser:
Holy shit, what utter raving idiocy. The author has obviously never emigrated from anywhere nor seriously talked with anyone who did. People return because they miss their families, friends, native language and habits… I know a fair number of people who returned from Western countries to Russia and that’s the only reason they cite.
And living conditions in Russia aren’t anywhere near to North Korean standard.
I had previously no idea that half of the North Koreans who cross the border never return. If it is so, it is an extremely strong indicator that the life in the DPRK is very unpleasant for its own citizens. To imply that this piece of data is in fact evidence for the contrary is absurd.
To emigrate from DPRK to China means that you lose your home, your family, your friends, your job. You have to start from scratch, from the lowest levels in social hierarchy, capable of doing only the worst available jobs, without knowledge of local language (which is not easy to learn, given that the destination country is China), probably facing xenophobia. If you are 40 or older, there is almost no chance that your situation will improve significantly.
The North Koreans who actually travel abroad are probably not the poorest. They have to afford a ticket, at least. They have something to lose. In North-Korean style of tyrannies, families are often persecuted because of emigration of their members. In spite of all that, half of the North Koreans never return (if the linked post tells the truth) and the author says about it that “the North Korean government [does] such a good job under such difficult circumstances”, and then needs to explain that “success” by group identity. Thats an absurdity.
So the rate of returning emigrants strikes you as incredibly high, and strikes Roberts as incredibly low (and I uncritically adopted what I read, foolishly). I think what’s really needed here is more data—a comparative analysis of rates of return that takes into important covariates into account.
After thinking about it for a while, rate of return may not be a good indicator, at least for comparative analyses. Imagine two countries A and K. 10% of citizens of both these countries would prefer to live somewhere else.
In country A, the government doesn’t care a bit about emigration (if government exists in that country at all). The country is mainly producer of agricultural goods, with minimal international trade. Nearest country with substantially better living conditions, country X, is 3000 km away.
In country K, the government is afraid of all its citizens emigrating, and tries to make it as difficult as possible, by issuing passports only to loyal people, for instance. Emigration is portrayed as treason. X is a neigbour country.
Now, in country A (African type) there is no need for people to travel abroad, except emigration. Business travelers are rare, since there are almost no businesses owned by A’s citizens, and to travel 3000 km for pleasure is out of reach for almost all of A’s inhabitants. Therefore, meeting A’s citizen in X, we can expect that he is an emigrant with 99% probability, and the return rate would be in order of 1%.
In country K (Korean type) the people who can travel abroad are workers of government organisations sent on business trips, people from border areas coming to X to do some private business (if there are private businesses in K) and the K’s elite on vacations. Now, meeting K’s citizen in X, the probability that he is an emigrant is much lower.
So we have expected high return rate for A and low for K, whereas the average desire to emigrate can be the same.
This may be the reason of disagreement. Roberts has probably compared North Korea to African countries, and was surprised that not all travellers are emigrants. I have compared it to East European communist regimes and concluded that if half of the travellers never return, certainly even much of the loyal supporters of the regime betray it when they have an opportunity.
To make sensible analysis, we should take into account rather the ratio of emigration to overall population. Of course, such analysis would be distorted due to different difficulty of emigration from different countries. The return rate seems to overcome this distortion, but it probably brings at least as big own problems.
Maybe you should post the above comment on Roberts’s blog. (I’ve already posted mine.)
Done; my comment is awaiting moderation.