Okay, my statement as far as “no trials” was imprecise, I did explicitly talk about the COVID-19 trials, so I did grant that there are trials that happen. The just don’t happen for most vaccines as most vaccines are controlled against previously licensed vaccines.
Because it’s an incredibly rare side-effect
A quick search suggests 1/10000 as a current official number. Do you consider 1/10000 incredibly rare?
I’ve never made any claims about “absolute safety”.
People who want to decide whether or not to take a vaccine care about absolute safety and not about relative safety between different vaccines.
Sure, they are “unsafe” in the way that any action or inaction is nominally “unsafe”.
They are unsafe in a way that warrants their producers being held not liable for the damages caused by them to set incentives to minimize damages. The assumption here is that the cost of paying for an insurance policy that adequately pays for the damage is too high to burden the producers of vaccines with it.
There are few cases where we say as a society that things are so risky that we need to shield a company from the harm that their products might produce.
There’s a reason that prediction markets are popular on LessWrong. They are a tax on bullshit. A requirement to have insurance policies is in the same way a tax on bullshit. “Unavoidably unsafe” is about unwillingness to pay that tax.
The medically relevant question is whether a new drug or therapy is safe and effective relative what what we are already doing.
That’s relevant for people who want to decide about whether to take the old or the new vaccine. To the person who wants to make a decision between taking no vaccine at all or the new vaccine, evidence that compares the new vaccine against no vaccine is relevant.
__________
But let’s focus more on the meat of the issue. What makes you confident that the current system is effective at finding all side-effects that exist of vaccines?
Is it that you decided beforehand that “distrust of scientists” is bad and therefore you trust the output of the system? Otherwise, what process did you went through to develop your trust that this particular system works very well?
Okay, my statement as far as “no trials” was imprecise, I did explicitly talk about the COVID-19 trials, so I did grant that there are trials that happen. The just don’t happen for most vaccines as most vaccines are controlled against previously licensed vaccines.
A quick search suggests 1/10000 as a current official number. Do you consider 1/10000 incredibly rare?
People who want to decide whether or not to take a vaccine care about absolute safety and not about relative safety between different vaccines.
They are unsafe in a way that warrants their producers being held not liable for the damages caused by them to set incentives to minimize damages. The assumption here is that the cost of paying for an insurance policy that adequately pays for the damage is too high to burden the producers of vaccines with it.
There are few cases where we say as a society that things are so risky that we need to shield a company from the harm that their products might produce.
There’s a reason that prediction markets are popular on LessWrong. They are a tax on bullshit. A requirement to have insurance policies is in the same way a tax on bullshit. “Unavoidably unsafe” is about unwillingness to pay that tax.
That’s relevant for people who want to decide about whether to take the old or the new vaccine. To the person who wants to make a decision between taking no vaccine at all or the new vaccine, evidence that compares the new vaccine against no vaccine is relevant.
__________
But let’s focus more on the meat of the issue. What makes you confident that the current system is effective at finding all side-effects that exist of vaccines?
Is it that you decided beforehand that “distrust of scientists” is bad and therefore you trust the output of the system? Otherwise, what process did you went through to develop your trust that this particular system works very well?