Imagine this post with the problems that other commenters have pointed out fixed. In effect you’re saying: Suppose I multiply something that’s REALLY small (probability of having to pay out) by something that’s REALLY big (amount that you would have to pay out). Further, suppose that the product (the expected payout) is 5 dollars. Can I just claim that the small probability is “practically zero” and get a different answer for the payout (that is, 0 dollars)?
There’s nothing in your problem to prefer “small is approximately zero” over “big is approximately infinite”. By making the other approximation, it seems just as reasonable for someone to pay a small amount for a small but finite chance of an infinite payout.
This question reminds me of the “immovable force and unstoppable barrier” problem that some of us encountered in middle school. One’s intuition is destroyed by the extremes involved, and you can easily get your thinking into a circular rut focused on one half of the problem without noticing that your debate partner is going in a symmetrical circle on the other side.
Imagine this post with the problems that other commenters have pointed out fixed. In effect you’re saying: Suppose I multiply something that’s REALLY small (probability of having to pay out) by something that’s REALLY big (amount that you would have to pay out). Further, suppose that the product (the expected payout) is 5 dollars. Can I just claim that the small probability is “practically zero” and get a different answer for the payout (that is, 0 dollars)?
There’s nothing in your problem to prefer “small is approximately zero” over “big is approximately infinite”. By making the other approximation, it seems just as reasonable for someone to pay a small amount for a small but finite chance of an infinite payout.
This question reminds me of the “immovable force and unstoppable barrier” problem that some of us encountered in middle school. One’s intuition is destroyed by the extremes involved, and you can easily get your thinking into a circular rut focused on one half of the problem without noticing that your debate partner is going in a symmetrical circle on the other side.