What I cannot explain, at all, is how this can be true if on June 20, three months ago, the market was 63-39, and now it’s 65-40, all but unchanged. Trump improved a bit, then got worse again, with Biden’s low being at 55.
Note that on June 20, the 538 model had Trump at 22% to win (it began at 30% on June 1). The progression he offers makes sense and is consistent. The market’s doesn’t, and isn’t.
Just as a note, three months ago was July 20th, and that seems to be the date you used for the market. (The market was more like 55-45 on June 20th.) The 538 forecast was indeed 22% for Trump on June 20th, and had actually gone up to 25% by July 20th, but I don’t think that changes much.
Just as a note, three months ago was July 20th, and that seems to be the date you used for the market. (The market was more like 55-45 on June 20th.) The 538 forecast was indeed 22% for Trump on June 20th, and had actually gone up to 25% by July 20th, but I don’t think that changes much.