“Wrong” as in “less likely to match reality.” Not very much is certain, but that doesn’t mean we are forbidden from talking about certainty.
Sure, but the whole point of prediction markets is to capture knowledge from individuals that wouldn’t otherwise be available.
If everyone just bets what the polls say, then why have the market at all?
The response could just as easily be “why are the polls wrong?”
“Wrong” as in “less likely to match reality.” Not very much is certain, but that doesn’t mean we are forbidden from talking about certainty.
Sure, but the whole point of prediction markets is to capture knowledge from individuals that wouldn’t otherwise be available.
If everyone just bets what the polls say, then why have the market at all?
The response could just as easily be “why are the polls wrong?”