To steelman the odds’ consistency (though I agree with you that the market isn’t really reflecting careful thinking from enough people), Biden is farther ahead in the 538 projection now than he was before, but on the other hand, Trump has completely gotten away with refusing to commit to a peaceful transfer of power. Even if that’s not the most surprising thing in the world (how far indeed we have fallen), it wasn’t at 100% two months ago.
I take it you mean “people might be betting on the possibility that Trump wins the election, as forecasts predict, but remains president by refusing to concede”?
Betfair’s fine print excludes that possibility from the market:
This market will be settled according to the candidate that has the most projected Electoral College votes won at the 2020 presidential election. Any subsequent events such as a ‘faithless elector’ will have no effect on the settlement of this market. In the event that no Presidential candidate receives a majority of the projected Electoral College votes, this market will be settled on the person chosen as President in accordance with the procedures set out by the Twelfth Amendment to the United States Constitution.
I don’t have PredictIt’s fine print in front of me, but IIRC it’s similar but less explicit.
To steelman the odds’ consistency (though I agree with you that the market isn’t really reflecting careful thinking from enough people), Biden is farther ahead in the 538 projection now than he was before, but on the other hand, Trump has completely gotten away with refusing to commit to a peaceful transfer of power. Even if that’s not the most surprising thing in the world (how far indeed we have fallen), it wasn’t at 100% two months ago.
I take it you mean “people might be betting on the possibility that Trump wins the election, as forecasts predict, but remains president by refusing to concede”?
Betfair’s fine print excludes that possibility from the market:
I don’t have PredictIt’s fine print in front of me, but IIRC it’s similar but less explicit.