In fact, betting in prediction markets and stock markets provides an external criteria for measuring epistemic rationality [...]
So why haven’t we been dominating prediction and stock markets? Why aren’t we dominating them right now?
Trying to ‘dominate’ the stock market is a very bad idea, roughly analogous to your AI baseball example. The generally accepted best approach is to passively accumulate index funds, which I imagine is exactly what many people here are already doing. For individuals, winning is mostly about not-losing, which tends to be invisible; if you succeed, nothing happens.
Trying to ‘dominate’ the stock market is a very bad idea, roughly analogous to your AI baseball example. The generally accepted best approach is to passively accumulate index funds, which I imagine is exactly what many people here are already doing. For individuals, winning is mostly about not-losing, which tends to be invisible; if you succeed, nothing happens.
cf. Antigravity Investments (investment advisor service for EAs), which recommends a passive index fund approach.