The sentence uttered (if true) has as a “cause” an event with 1% probability, or the speaker doing something they wish to conceal. Which is more likely? (And further, such a policy is more likely to be used by someone who does things they wish to conceal often.)
If you start rolling the die the first day that you want to lie yes then it is very suspicous and doesn’t really gain any concealment benefits. But starting to roll the die gives the option to lie. And in the flipside it forfeits that your word is worth that much. Even if you never actually lie people can’t take your word so seriously.
If you just claim to roll but never actually roll that is a very different case.
I assumed the person has a background policy of rolling the die everyday regardless of intent to lie. Then the roll would not be out of the ordinary.
The sentence uttered (if true) has as a “cause” an event with 1% probability, or the speaker doing something they wish to conceal. Which is more likely? (And further, such a policy is more likely to be used by someone who does things they wish to conceal often.)
If you start rolling the die the first day that you want to lie yes then it is very suspicous and doesn’t really gain any concealment benefits. But starting to roll the die gives the option to lie. And in the flipside it forfeits that your word is worth that much. Even if you never actually lie people can’t take your word so seriously.
If you just claim to roll but never actually roll that is a very different case.