Sorry, I’m having trouble following. You’re saying that 1) it’s unlikely to be a lab leak known to US Intel because it would have been known to us via leaks, and 2) you think that Intel agencies have evidence about WIV employees having COVID and that it’s being withheld?
First, I think you’re overestimating both how much information from highly sensitive sources would leak, and how much Chinese leaders would know if it were a lab leak. This seems on net to be mostly uninformative.
Second, if they have evidence about WIV members having COVID, (and not, you know, any other respiratory disease in the middle of flu/cold season,) I still don’t know why you think you would know that it was withheld from congress. Intel agencies share classified information with certain members of Congress routinely, but you’d never know what was or was not said. You think a lack of a leak is evidence that would have been illegally withheld from congress—but it’s not illegal for Intel agencies to keep information secret, in a wide variety of cases.
And on that second point, even without the above arguments, not having seen such evidence publicly leaked can’t plausibly be more likely in a world where it was a lab leak that was hidden, than it would be in a world where it wasn’t a lab leak and the evidence you’re not seeing simply doesn’t exist!
You’re saying that 1) it’s unlikely to be a lab leak known to US Intel
I’m not sure what you mean with “known to”. There’s evidence. If we believe reporting that at least some people within the intelligence agencies who were willing to leak information to Schellenberger/Taibbi believe that this evidence feels conclusive to some members of the intelligence agencies about three WIV employees being ill with COVID but it doesn’t seem conclusive to other people.
Evidence often is in a form where it looks conclusive to some people but not others, especially when some of the people engage in motivated reasoning.
Second, if they have evidence about WIV members having COVID, (and not, you know, any other respiratory disease in the middle of flu/cold season,) I still don’t know why you think you would know that it was withheld from congress.
The COVID-19 Origin Act of 2023 puts a legal obligation on the Director of National Intelligence to disclose among other things:
(C) researchers at the Wuhan Institute of Virology who fell ill in autumn 2019, including for any such researcher-- (i) the researcher’s name; (ii) the researcher’s symptoms; (iii) the date of the onset of the researcher’s symptoms;
(iv) the researcher’s role at the Wuhan Institute of Virology; (v) whether the researcher was involved with or exposed to coronavirus research at the Wuhan Institute of Virology; (vi) whether the researcher visited a hospital while they were ill; and (vii) a description of any other actions taken by the researcher that may suggest they were experiencing a serious illness at the time
The report that was created in response does not provide that information.
I think from the reporting we have, we can be relatively certain that the intelligence agencies have reports of three WIV employees falling ill. How strong the evidence happens to be that this was COVID-19 is not publically known but would be publically known if the Director of National Intelligence had followed the law.
There has to be some reason why the Director of National Intelligence decided not to follow the law passed by Congress and release that information in his report. The unwillingness shows that the Director of National Intelligence (as representative of the intelligence communities) is biased.
The U.S. government has reason to believe that several researchers inside the WIV became sick in autumn 2019, before the first identified case of the outbreak, with symptoms consistent with both COVID-19 and common seasonal illnesses. This raises questions about the credibility of WIV senior researcher Shi Zhengli’s public claim that there was “zero infection” among the WIV’s staff and students of SARS-CoV-2 or SARS-related viruses.
Thanks. I was unaware of the law, and yes, that does seem to be strong evidence that the agencies in question don’t have any evidence specific enough to come to any conclusion. That, or they are foolishly risking pissing off Congress, which can subpoena them, and seems happy to do exactly that in other situations—and they would do so knowing that it’s eventually going to come out that they withheld evidence?!?
Again, it’s winter, people get sick, that’s very weak Bayesian evidence of an outbreak, at best. On priors, how many people at an institute that size get influenza every month during the winter?
And the fact that it was only 3 people, months earlier, seems to indicate moderately strongly it wasn’t the source of the full COVID-19 outbreak, since if it were, given the lack of precautions against spread at the time, if it already infected 3 different people, it seems likely it would have spread more widely within China starting at that time.
I’m not as familiar with the details but I don’t see why a subpoena would have a stronger force of law than the COVID-19 Origin Act of 2023 when it comes to making information public. If they send a subpoena to the Director of Intelligence a subpoena I would expect him to claim executive privilege.
and they would do so knowing that it’s eventually going to come out that they withheld evidence?!?
They withheld evidence. The only question we don’t know is how strong the evidence they withheld happens to be. Congress specifically wrote the section into the COVID-19 Origin Act of 2023 because they know that there’s evidence about those three employees from the State Department quote from above.
Again, it’s winter, people get sick, that’s very weak Bayesian evidence of an outbreak, at best. On priors, how many people at an institute that size get influenza every month during the winter?
According to multiple U.S. government officials interviewed as part of a lengthy investigation by Public and Racket, the first people infected by the virus, “patients zero,” included Ben Hu, a researcher who led the WIV’s “gain-of-function” research on SARS-like coronaviruses, which increases the infectiousness of viruses.
This suggests that the evidence was strong enough to convince some of the U.S. government officials with access to the evidence to convince them.
According to that article, the three employees of the WIV were not random members of the institute but working on coronavirus gain-of-function. They also seemed to be ill enough to go to the hospital which is not typical with influenza.
That kind of information wasn’t in previous government disclosures and wrote the COVID-19 Origin Act of 2023 to make the government disclose it. For some reason, the Director of Intelligence is withholding information for which Congress explicitly asked them.
Given that the Director of Intelligence is willing to withhold evidence that Congress can be certain to exist, they might also be withholding pieces of evidence over which we have no clue, and that might be protected enough that the sources with whom journalists talked didn’t know either or were unwilling to share.
months earlier
As far I remember previous reporting was about them being ill in November so not multiple months earlier.
Sorry, I’m having trouble following. You’re saying that 1) it’s unlikely to be a lab leak known to US Intel because it would have been known to us via leaks, and 2) you think that Intel agencies have evidence about WIV employees having COVID and that it’s being withheld?
First, I think you’re overestimating both how much information from highly sensitive sources would leak, and how much Chinese leaders would know if it were a lab leak. This seems on net to be mostly uninformative.
Second, if they have evidence about WIV members having COVID, (and not, you know, any other respiratory disease in the middle of flu/cold season,) I still don’t know why you think you would know that it was withheld from congress. Intel agencies share classified information with certain members of Congress routinely, but you’d never know what was or was not said. You think a lack of a leak is evidence that would have been illegally withheld from congress—but it’s not illegal for Intel agencies to keep information secret, in a wide variety of cases.
And on that second point, even without the above arguments, not having seen such evidence publicly leaked can’t plausibly be more likely in a world where it was a lab leak that was hidden, than it would be in a world where it wasn’t a lab leak and the evidence you’re not seeing simply doesn’t exist!
I’m not sure what you mean with “known to”. There’s evidence. If we believe reporting that at least some people within the intelligence agencies who were willing to leak information to Schellenberger/Taibbi believe that this evidence feels conclusive to some members of the intelligence agencies about three WIV employees being ill with COVID but it doesn’t seem conclusive to other people.
Evidence often is in a form where it looks conclusive to some people but not others, especially when some of the people engage in motivated reasoning.
The COVID-19 Origin Act of 2023 puts a legal obligation on the Director of National Intelligence to disclose among other things:
The report that was created in response does not provide that information.
I think from the reporting we have, we can be relatively certain that the intelligence agencies have reports of three WIV employees falling ill. How strong the evidence happens to be that this was COVID-19 is not publically known but would be publically known if the Director of National Intelligence had followed the law.
There has to be some reason why the Director of National Intelligence decided not to follow the law passed by Congress and release that information in his report. The unwillingness shows that the Director of National Intelligence (as representative of the intelligence communities) is biased.
EDIT: According to the State Department:
Thanks. I was unaware of the law, and yes, that does seem to be strong evidence that the agencies in question don’t have any evidence specific enough to come to any conclusion. That, or they are foolishly risking pissing off Congress, which can subpoena them, and seems happy to do exactly that in other situations—and they would do so knowing that it’s eventually going to come out that they withheld evidence?!?
Again, it’s winter, people get sick, that’s very weak Bayesian evidence of an outbreak, at best. On priors, how many people at an institute that size get influenza every month during the winter?
And the fact that it was only 3 people, months earlier, seems to indicate moderately strongly it wasn’t the source of the full COVID-19 outbreak, since if it were, given the lack of precautions against spread at the time, if it already infected 3 different people, it seems likely it would have spread more widely within China starting at that time.
I’m not as familiar with the details but I don’t see why a subpoena would have a stronger force of law than the COVID-19 Origin Act of 2023 when it comes to making information public. If they send a subpoena to the Director of Intelligence a subpoena I would expect him to claim executive privilege.
They withheld evidence. The only question we don’t know is how strong the evidence they withheld happens to be. Congress specifically wrote the section into the COVID-19 Origin Act of 2023 because they know that there’s evidence about those three employees from the State Department quote from above.
Michael Schellenberger et al suggest:
This suggests that the evidence was strong enough to convince some of the U.S. government officials with access to the evidence to convince them.
According to that article, the three employees of the WIV were not random members of the institute but working on coronavirus gain-of-function. They also seemed to be ill enough to go to the hospital which is not typical with influenza.
That kind of information wasn’t in previous government disclosures and wrote the COVID-19 Origin Act of 2023 to make the government disclose it. For some reason, the Director of Intelligence is withholding information for which Congress explicitly asked them.
Given that the Director of Intelligence is willing to withhold evidence that Congress can be certain to exist, they might also be withholding pieces of evidence over which we have no clue, and that might be protected enough that the sources with whom journalists talked didn’t know either or were unwilling to share.
As far I remember previous reporting was about them being ill in November so not multiple months earlier.