Yep, the tweet thread is just me jotting down thoughts etc while watching the debate.
I was 75-80% convinced when I tweeted that, which was before I had finished the debate. After watching the debate, I made a sketchy Bayesian calculation that got me to 96%, but I’ve since backed off to maybe 66%.
Basically: the key question for me is whether you think one of the first outbreaks of COVID happened at the Huanan Seafood Market. Rootclaim conceded this, and as far as I can tell if this is true then it’s dispositive evidence, but I have since began to doubt it.
Notes:
Yep, the tweet thread is just me jotting down thoughts etc while watching the debate.
I was 75-80% convinced when I tweeted that, which was before I had finished the debate. After watching the debate, I made a sketchy Bayesian calculation that got me to 96%, but I’ve since backed off to maybe 66%.
Basically: the key question for me is whether you think one of the first outbreaks of COVID happened at the Huanan Seafood Market. Rootclaim conceded this, and as far as I can tell if this is true then it’s dispositive evidence, but I have since began to doubt it.
One thing in favour of my judgements is that I’m at number 5 on Metaculus’ leaderboard of how accurate predictors were compared to their peers, altho that mostly comes from predictions made between 2016 and April 2020, when I burnt out from forecasting on Metaculus.
I’m currently in the Diamond league on Manifold, which is much less impressive, and in part driven by my prediction of which way the debate would go.
Oh—it could be that my peer score is artificially high due to using Metaculus back when there were fewer peers who were good at forecasting.