I think you misinterpret Dr Shalizi, and do him a disservice. I think his answer is perfectly reasonable from a bayesian point of view. Basically, I see three common reasons to spend time researching difference between races:
A) People who are genuinely interested in the answer, for pragmatic or intellectual reasons B) People who are a racist and want to hear a particular answer that fits their preconceived views C) People who are trying to be controversial/contrarian/want to provoke people
Certainly there are people who are genuinely curious towards the answer, purely for intellectual reasons (A). I am somewhat interested myself. However, the fact of the matter is that many others are interested purely for racist reasons (B). Many racists aren’t open in their racism, and as such mask their racism as honest scientific inquiry, making B indistinguishable from A. Showing interest in the subject is therefore Bayesian evidence for B as much as it is for A. Even worse is the fact that everyone knows that everyone realizes this on an intuitive level, which causes most As to shut up for fear of being identified as Bs, while Bs continue what they are doing. This serves to compound the effect. Meanwhile, Cs arise expressly because it is a hot button topic. As a result it is entirely rational to conclude that someone who is constantly yelling about race and inserting the subject into other conversations is more likely to be a racist on average than others. And of course, it’s incredibly frustrating if you are an A and just want an honest conversation about the subject, which is now impossible (thanks, politics!).
I think Shalizi deals with this messed up situation admirably: Making clear what he believes while doing everything to avoid sounding controversial or giving fuel to racists. Of course this doesn’t work very well because people who call others racist fall into two categories themselves:
D) People who are genuinely worried about the dangerous effects of racist claims. E) People who realise they can win any argument by default by calling the other a racist
And people who fall under category E do not, of course, care about the truth of the matter in the slightest.
Kind of tempted to write a top-level post about this, now. Hmm...
I think that the fact that there is a debate and that the “good guys” use name-calling instead of scientific arguments, increases also the number of people in the group A.
It’s a bit like telling people not to think of an elephant, and then justify it by saying that elephant-haters are most obsessed about elephants, therefore thinking of an elephant is an evidence of being an evil person. Well, as soon as told everyone not to think of an elephant, this stopped being true.
Actually, it is more like not being allowed to talk about the elephant (...in the room. See what I did there?). Not talking about a subject is much easier than not thinking about it. And because everybody knows that talking about the elephant will cause you to be called an elephant hater and nothing good whatsoever will come of it in 95% of cases, the only people who continue to talk about elephants are people who care so strongly about the subject that they are willing to be called an elephant-hater just so that they can be heard. So that leaves people who either really hate elephants, and people who really can’t stand being told that they’re not allowed to say something (and super-dedicated elephant scientists I guess, but there’s not very many of those).
The most difficult part of not talking about the elephant is when someone suddently says: “There is no elephant in this room, and we all know it, don’t we?” Interpreting the rule as forbidding to talk about the elephant, but not about the absence of the elephant.
Specifically, if there is a rule against mentioning genetic differences—and the goal is to avoid the discussion about genetics, not to assert that there are no differences—the rule should equally forbid saying that there are genetic differences, and that there aren’t genetic differences.
The rule should make very clear whether its intent is to 1) stop both sides of the debate, or 2) stop only one side of the debate, letting the other side win. Both options make sense, but it is difficult to follow when it is not sure which of these two options was meant.
I’d say that the percentage of people showing interest in medicine that want to poison their neighbour is rather lower than the percentage of people talking about genetic differences between race being racist.
I think you misinterpret Dr Shalizi, and do him a disservice. I think his answer is perfectly reasonable from a bayesian point of view. Basically, I see three common reasons to spend time researching difference between races:
A) People who are genuinely interested in the answer, for pragmatic or intellectual reasons
B) People who are a racist and want to hear a particular answer that fits their preconceived views
C) People who are trying to be controversial/contrarian/want to provoke people
Certainly there are people who are genuinely curious towards the answer, purely for intellectual reasons (A). I am somewhat interested myself. However, the fact of the matter is that many others are interested purely for racist reasons (B). Many racists aren’t open in their racism, and as such mask their racism as honest scientific inquiry, making B indistinguishable from A. Showing interest in the subject is therefore Bayesian evidence for B as much as it is for A. Even worse is the fact that everyone knows that everyone realizes this on an intuitive level, which causes most As to shut up for fear of being identified as Bs, while Bs continue what they are doing. This serves to compound the effect. Meanwhile, Cs arise expressly because it is a hot button topic. As a result it is entirely rational to conclude that someone who is constantly yelling about race and inserting the subject into other conversations is more likely to be a racist on average than others. And of course, it’s incredibly frustrating if you are an A and just want an honest conversation about the subject, which is now impossible (thanks, politics!).
I think Shalizi deals with this messed up situation admirably: Making clear what he believes while doing everything to avoid sounding controversial or giving fuel to racists. Of course this doesn’t work very well because people who call others racist fall into two categories themselves:
D) People who are genuinely worried about the dangerous effects of racist claims.
E) People who realise they can win any argument by default by calling the other a racist
And people who fall under category E do not, of course, care about the truth of the matter in the slightest.
Kind of tempted to write a top-level post about this, now. Hmm...
I think that the fact that there is a debate and that the “good guys” use name-calling instead of scientific arguments, increases also the number of people in the group A.
It’s a bit like telling people not to think of an elephant, and then justify it by saying that elephant-haters are most obsessed about elephants, therefore thinking of an elephant is an evidence of being an evil person. Well, as soon as told everyone not to think of an elephant, this stopped being true.
Actually, it is more like not being allowed to talk about the elephant (...in the room. See what I did there?). Not talking about a subject is much easier than not thinking about it. And because everybody knows that talking about the elephant will cause you to be called an elephant hater and nothing good whatsoever will come of it in 95% of cases, the only people who continue to talk about elephants are people who care so strongly about the subject that they are willing to be called an elephant-hater just so that they can be heard. So that leaves people who either really hate elephants, and people who really can’t stand being told that they’re not allowed to say something (and super-dedicated elephant scientists I guess, but there’s not very many of those).
The most difficult part of not talking about the elephant is when someone suddently says: “There is no elephant in this room, and we all know it, don’t we?” Interpreting the rule as forbidding to talk about the elephant, but not about the absence of the elephant.
Specifically, if there is a rule against mentioning genetic differences—and the goal is to avoid the discussion about genetics, not to assert that there are no differences—the rule should equally forbid saying that there are genetic differences, and that there aren’t genetic differences.
The rule should make very clear whether its intent is to 1) stop both sides of the debate, or 2) stop only one side of the debate, letting the other side win. Both options make sense, but it is difficult to follow when it is not sure which of these two options was meant.
In the same sense that showing interest in medicine is Bayesian evidence for me wanting to poison my neighbors.
I’d say that the percentage of people showing interest in medicine that want to poison their neighbour is rather lower than the percentage of people talking about genetic differences between race being racist.
That depends on the definition of “racist” used.