Interesting questions, though as a committed Bayesian I was very embarrassed that I couldn’t even remember which century he was born! Guessed at about 20% chance of my estimate being within 20 years of the true date which it wasn’t. So I was wrong, but at least right that I was wrong. I suppose that is “less wrong”?
Just taken—my first LessWrong census!
Interesting questions, though as a committed Bayesian I was very embarrassed that I couldn’t even remember which century he was born! Guessed at about 20% chance of my estimate being within 20 years of the true date which it wasn’t. So I was wrong, but at least right that I was wrong. I suppose that is “less wrong”?
Same for me… missed by 60 years but stated 30% of accuracy. I’m actually emotionally confused about the whole matter :)
I correctly remembered what decade his theorem was published, but my guess about how old he was was off by a factor of 2.