Is the basic math necessarily correct?
You can expect that on average the expectation (of your future p(doom) change) is positive while the expectation is still zero; It’s likely GPT-6 will be impressive but if it’s not it’s a bigger negative update.
Is the basic math necessarily correct?
You can expect that on average the expectation (of your future p(doom) change) is positive while the expectation is still zero; It’s likely GPT-6 will be impressive but if it’s not it’s a bigger negative update.