I really hoping it doesn’t go that way, but I do see us as approaching a time in which the military and economic implications of AI will become so pressing that large-scale international conflict is likely unless agreements are reached. There are specific ways I anticipate tool AI advances affecting the power balance between superpower countries, even before autonomous AGI is a threat. I wake in the night in a cold sweat worrying about these things. I am terrified. I think there’s a real chance we all die soon, or that there is massive suffering and chaos, perhaps with or without war. The balance of power has shifted massively in favor of offense, and a new tenuous balance of Mutually Assured Destruction has not yet been established. This is a very dangerous time.
I really hoping it doesn’t go that way, but I do see us as approaching a time in which the military and economic implications of AI will become so pressing that large-scale international conflict is likely unless agreements are reached. There are specific ways I anticipate tool AI advances affecting the power balance between superpower countries, even before autonomous AGI is a threat. I wake in the night in a cold sweat worrying about these things. I am terrified. I think there’s a real chance we all die soon, or that there is massive suffering and chaos, perhaps with or without war. The balance of power has shifted massively in favor of offense, and a new tenuous balance of Mutually Assured Destruction has not yet been established. This is a very dangerous time.